The spectre of downgrading

The decline of the Italian middle class: an uncertain future for the next generations

CIDA-Censis report reveals that 75 per cent of Italians expect a worsening of living conditions for future generations

Censis: italiani sonnambuli, con meno figli e impauriti dal clima

6' min read

6' min read

Amiddle class that has had to suffer the consequences of a downsizing process in recent years, that has reviewed the extent of its role in social dynamics and that already senses that new challenges await it on the horizon.

Today, 60.5% of Italians feel that they belong to this segment of the population. Even before being a question of income, 'being middle class' is a condition of identity and perceived social status. But if in the (golden) past of Italian economic development, from the post-war period to the boom years, being middle class meant feeling part of a collective upward movement, today the perception of a socio-economic downgrading prevails: 48.8% experience the fear of a regression in the social scale and 74.4% are convinced of a concrete block in upward mobility.

Loading...

A report to tell a role

.

Recounting the present of this target population is the CIDA-Censis report 'The value of the middle class for the economy and society', commissioned by the Italian Confederation of Executives and Senior Executives, and presented on Monday 20 May at a conference at the Chamber of Deputies.

The numbers of the crisis

.

While it is true that the phenomenon of the erosion of the Italian average is nothing new but has been going on for some time, it has now accelerated.As is often the case, numbers speak louder than words: Italian GDP grew by 41.6% between 1970 and 1980, by 25% in the following decade, and then continued its slow decline, marking only +17.9% in the 1990s, until it collapses to +3.5% in the four-year period 2019-2023. The president of CIDA, Stefano Cuzzilla, emphasised that this new period is dominated by a palpable fear of social mobility being blocked "not only for the lowest incomes but also for the income brackets up to EUR 50,000 and above, which are the ones that drive consumption and investment. Certainly a marked departure from the optimism and collective perceptions of opportunity that were once widespread among us. After all, the parabola of the middle class is the parabola experienced by the majority of Italian families over several generations, going from high GDP growth rates to its slowdown'.

The shrinking middle class affects the most advanced countries

.

This is how the economic 'downsizing' involving the middle class is not just an Italian phenomenon but concerns the most advanced countries as a whole, from the US to most EU countries. Globalisation and technological change have shifted the axis of income creation towards emerging economies, emptying the productive structures of more advanced countries that have lost quality employment, in terms of pay and protection. The data on families is eloquent: over a twenty-year period, from 2001 to 2021, the per capita income of Italian families fell by 7.7%, while the European average rose by almost 10 percentage points, with German families at +7.3% and French families at +9.9%.

Invaluable Crystal Ceilings

.

76% of Italians think that it is increasingly difficult to move up the social ladder: 74.7% of those who feel they belong to the middle class, 79.5% to the working class and 68.3% to the affluent class share this idea. The perception of the blocking of social mobility is shared by 78.5% of those with incomes up to €15,000, 78.9% between €15 and €35,000, 77% between €35 and €50,000, and 64.2% with €50,000 and over. Furthermore, there is a widespread belief that the trend of wealth over time is downward. They believe that past generations lived better off 66.6% of Italians and, in particular, 65.7% of the middle class, 70.1% of the working class and 56.7% of the well-off. At the same time, 76.1% of citizens think that future generations will be worse off than the current ones: 75.1% of the middle class, 77.1% of the working class and 78% of the affluent.

The spectre of downgrading

.

This explains why the present and the future are marked by a fear of downgrading, by a propensity to defend one's status quo rather than to improve, with the conviction that welfare trends over time are decreasing. An idea rooted in the country's social belly, shared in full by the clear majority of people who feel part of the middle class: 66.6% of Italians (65.7% of the middle class) are convinced that past generations lived better and 76.1% of Italians (75.1% of the middle class) believe that future generations will be worse off than the current ones.

"Other policies are possible"

.

For a long time, certain erosive processes of the condition of the middle class in Italy were considered unstoppable and almost automatic. The research presented to the Chamber comes to the conclusion that other policies are possible, and that a different political-institutional commitment to the needs of the middle class would not be a response to a socially-corporatist solicitation, but an important contribution to the relaunch of the country. "Wealth," reads the document, "must once again become a legitimate and attainable goal for those who are talented and choose to invest time and energy in work, in projects, in innovation, obtaining good results. This socio-cultural orientation is fundamental for re-motivating people and could greatly contribute to the relaunch of Italian development. 'Only by valuing commitment to work, talent, knowledge and skills can the mechanisms of growth be reactivated,' Cuzzilla emphasised.

Pro-merit tax system

.

For 80.6% of Italians, taxation should reward more and better those who create enterprise, work, opportunities: 82% of the middle class, 77.3% of the working class and 84.8% of the well-off think so too. In this regard, 78.6% of Italians and, specifically, 80% of those belonging to the middle class believe that they are harmed by tax evasion. This idea is also shared by 76% of the working classes and 79.9% of the well-off.

The Value of Pensioners

It is crucial for Italians to increasingly allow people of retirement age to manage their life choices independently. In fact, 59.6% of Italians are convinced that pensioners who want to work should be allowed to do so. An idea shared by 61.4% of the middle class, 54.8% of the working class and 68.7% of the well-off. Moreover, for 55.3% of Italians it is necessary to leave each individual the freedom to retire at the age he or she prefers, without penalties or rewards for doing so.

For 57.9% of Italians, commitment and ability are not adequately rewarded

.

For 57.9% of Italians, commitment and ability are not adequately rewarded (54.9% of the middle class). Furthermore, 81% think it is fair that those who work harder earn more (80% of the middle class), and 73.7% think it is legitimate and fair that a talented and capable person can become rich (75% of the middle class).

The hour of good managers

.

Faced with contemporary complexities, epochal processes of transition related to new technologies or sustainability, 87.1% of Italians are convinced that only a massive and capillary grafting of managerial cultures and practices will be able to allow the upgrading of functionality that is now required of the Italian country system. For 82.7%, the good manager in companies and organisations is the one who knows how to drive and motivate others. For 84.4% of Italians, higher efficiency in companies and public administration requires managers who are strongly oriented towards rewarding the most deserving at every level.

Positive examples: school and health

Two examples come out of the survey. The first is that of theschool. 52.7% of Italians in families with children have a positive opinion of school managers, 26.6% a negative one, and 20.7% have no precise opinion on the matter. For 68.6% to do well as a school manager, managerial skills are also needed, 85.8% of families are convinced that if a school is well managed in terms of organisation, it is also more likely to guarantee good teaching performance.

The second example is health care. Doctors in the health service, even in this stage so difficult for access to services, benefit from a high 'social reputation'. 65.6 per cent of Italians are convinced that if healthcare has held up over time, in emergencies and ordinariness, it is due to the self-sacrifice of doctors. 74.5% of Italians trust hospital doctors and 71.6% trust general practitioners. For Italians the human factor has been decisive so far in the health service and will remain so in the future, so it is essential to loosen the grip of economic constraints. Indeed, 76.5 per cent believe that too much emphasis has been placed in the health system on economic sustainability over health protection.

Copyright reserved ©
Loading...

Brand connect

Loading...

Newsletter

Notizie e approfondimenti sugli avvenimenti politici, economici e finanziari.

Iscriviti