The decline of the Italian middle class: an uncertain future for the next generations
CIDA-Censis report reveals that 75 per cent of Italians expect a worsening of living conditions for future generations
6' min read
Key points
- A report to tell a role
- The numbers of the crisis
- The shrinking middle class affects the most advanced countries
- Invaluable crystal ceilings
- The Spectrum of Downgrade
- "Other policies are possible"
- Pro-merit tax system
- The Value of Pensioners
- For 57.9% of Italians, commitment and ability are not adequately rewarded.
- Positive examples: school and health
6' min read
Amiddle class that has had to suffer the consequences of a downsizing process in recent years, that has reviewed the extent of its role in social dynamics and that already senses that new challenges await it on the horizon.
Today, 60.5% of Italians feel that they belong to this segment of the population. Even before being a question of income, 'being middle class' is a condition of identity and perceived social status. But if in the (golden) past of Italian economic development, from the post-war period to the boom years, being middle class meant feeling part of a collective upward movement, today the perception of a socio-economic downgrading prevails: 48.8% experience the fear of a regression in the social scale and 74.4% are convinced of a concrete block in upward mobility.
A report to tell a role
.Recounting the present of this target population is the CIDA-Censis report 'The value of the middle class for the economy and society', commissioned by the Italian Confederation of Executives and Senior Executives, and presented on Monday 20 May at a conference at the Chamber of Deputies.
The numbers of the crisis
.While it is true that the phenomenon of the erosion of the Italian average is nothing new but has been going on for some time, it has now accelerated.As is often the case, numbers speak louder than words: Italian GDP grew by 41.6% between 1970 and 1980, by 25% in the following decade, and then continued its slow decline, marking only +17.9% in the 1990s, until it collapses to +3.5% in the four-year period 2019-2023. The president of CIDA, Stefano Cuzzilla, emphasised that this new period is dominated by a palpable fear of social mobility being blocked "not only for the lowest incomes but also for the income brackets up to EUR 50,000 and above, which are the ones that drive consumption and investment. Certainly a marked departure from the optimism and collective perceptions of opportunity that were once widespread among us. After all, the parabola of the middle class is the parabola experienced by the majority of Italian families over several generations, going from high GDP growth rates to its slowdown'.
The shrinking middle class affects the most advanced countries
.This is how the economic 'downsizing' involving the middle class is not just an Italian phenomenon but concerns the most advanced countries as a whole, from the US to most EU countries. Globalisation and technological change have shifted the axis of income creation towards emerging economies, emptying the productive structures of more advanced countries that have lost quality employment, in terms of pay and protection. The data on families is eloquent: over a twenty-year period, from 2001 to 2021, the per capita income of Italian families fell by 7.7%, while the European average rose by almost 10 percentage points, with German families at +7.3% and French families at +9.9%.


