Milan attracts but does not include: the hinterland better meets demand

Milan is no longer a single city, but a vast metropolitan territory. This is the great theme around which the reflections on urban development - and therefore construction - of those who deal with real estate in the Milanese city revolve. "As a Chamber of Commerce we already represent the expansion of boundaries; Milan must now do the same by comparing itself with neighbouring realities," said Vincenzo Albanese, member of the board of the Milan, Monza and Brianza and Lodi Chamber of Commerce, during the opening session of the conference '#Home: data, analysis, prospects' held on 2 October at the Milan Chamber of Commerce.

The main issue is one: Milan is attractive but not very inclusive. But to understand the reasons for this, we need to start from the half-yearly data for 2024, analysed by the Chamber of Commerce Institute using data from Fimaa, Fiaip, Anama and the Agenzia dell'Entrate. The market in and around Milan in the first six months of the year remains stable, with prices continuing to rise, albeit slightly (we are between 1 and 5%, with peaks of 7% only in Monza city centre). But as prices rise, transactions come to a halt, and average sale times lengthen (we are currently around 5 months). At the same time, those places outside Milan that are well connected to the city, such as Monza and Lodi, are increasing the most.

"The hinterland grows because it welcomes," said Emanuele Barbera, of Anama Milano, during the meeting, "not only people but also businesses, which in Milan are not able to cope with the fee". So much so that in the city perimeter transactions continue to decline: -13% Q1 2024 on Q1 2023; -7% Q2 2024 on Q2 2023.

The rental market is not faring any better, with stipulations falling slightly, especially as regards classic 4+4 contracts (agreed rents, on the other hand, are growing). "The supply is also increasing," notes Albanese. "If we look at the rental advertisements on Immobiliare.it for 2024 and compare them with 2023, we can see that the number of rental contracts has risen by 75 per cent. It means that although demand is high, customers are either unable to afford to rent or cannot find properties that meet their needs.

Because in all this there remains another major issue affecting Milanese (and national) housing: the existing housing stock is in need of intervention and renovation. And this in order to respond as much to rental demand as to that of buying and selling. "New buildings are more attractive to buyers. They have better energy performance, banks offer subsidised mortgages, there is no renovation to be done. So much so that 12.6% of annual transactions in Milan are done on new. The problem is that Milan is a small city, and we have no prospects for new construction sites'.