Pensions and Manoeuvre 2025: minimums and young exits in the jigsaw puzzle

Tight spaces, to say the least, and public finance constraints made even tighter by the reform of the EU Stability Pact: making adjustments to the manoeuvre during its parliamentary navigation will not be easy. Especially to the pensions chapter, which appears to be armoured, or almost armoured. And the majority deputies, called upon to examine the budget law first this year, are well aware of this. But underground work is already underway to open a few gaps. And among the pending corrective measures there are also those on 'minimum' allowances and on facilitating access to early retirement for young 'contributors' with 64 years of age and 20 years of contributions.

In the first case, the pressure is on to make the increase of the treatment more robust, which in comparison with the one paid this year (with an overall revaluation higher than the one for 2024 also due to higher inflation) would be destined to rise by a little more than 3 euros per month: from 614.77 to 617.89, if 'indexation' in 2025 will be 1% and due to an equalisation of 2.2% instead of 2.7%. The objective of almost all the majority forces would be to rise at least to 620 and, at best, to 630. But it will not be easy to push through an adjustment in this direction because it would be necessary to make the dowry much more robust in order to make the cheques of the approximately 1.8 million pensioners concerned heavier. A dowry is currently set at 290 million for 2025 and another 175 million the following year (it was 465 million in 2023 and is about 350 million in 2024).

It is no coincidence that the leader of Fi, and Foreign Minister, Antonio Tajani, who has always included the increase in low pensions among his party's priorities, has stated in recent days: 'as Forza Italia we would like to increase the minimum pensions, but we must respect the stability pact that we have deferred over seven years'. In other words, Fi is aiming for a further adjustment but is aware that the current, narrow public finance perimeter is practically impassable. Under pressure, however, are also the trade unions, who have already put the manoeuvre in their sights. 'During the parliamentary procedure we will exert strong pressure on the government to build the conditions for minimum pensions to be increased,' said Cisl leader Luigi Sbarra.

The League, on the other hand, is pushing above all for the inclusion in the manoeuvre of that 'bridge' between compulsory and supplementary pensions for early retirement with 64 years and 20 years of contributions for young people with full contributions, which was skipped in the final stages of the drafting of the text approved in Montecitorio (as well as the new 'silence-consent' for the severance pay). In order to use this exit channel, workers who started working after 31 December 1995 must be able to reach an amount of treatment equal to at least three times the social allowance. Many in the government were in agreement that the workers concerned could use any pension from supplementary pensions to reach this threshold. But, in the end, this mechanism was only foreseen for reaching the limit of one times the social allowance set for 'pure contributors' with 67 years of age and 20 years of contributions.