Stock exchanges, climate of expectation for US inflation and elections in France. Saipem stands out in Milan (-0.5%)

Among the main stocks at Piazza Affari, Saipem (+2.37%) shone in countertrend thanks to the verdict of analysts at Jefferies, who expect a record order book to be announced at the presentation of second quarter accounts (scheduled for 24 July). Banks held up, with Bper (+1.12%) leading the way but Mps slipping (-2.2%). On the flip side, Tenaris (-2.22%) and Ferrari (-1.79%) sold off. Utilities were also weak with A2a leading the declines (-1.26%). A rebound attempt by Leonardo failed, which, after having risen more than a percentage point at the start of trading, ended the session below par at -0.88%. The defence stock had been heavily penalised on the eve of the day by the thud of Airbus (down 2.73% in Paris) after the French aerospace giant's surprise announcement of a cut in its financial and industrial targets for 2024. Outside the main basket, the closing of the 7.5 million capital increase and the new deal in Bahrain pushed Racing Force up 5.14%.

In the Old Continent, all attention is focused on France in the run-up to the weekend elections. The spread between the country's 10-year bond and German Bunds of the same duration, which in recent days has been pushing up to 76 basis points, a level not seen for a decade, reached a minimum below 70 points and then rose again to 71.57 at the close. Contributing to the easing of tension were the words with which the leader of the National Grouping party, Jordan Bardella (leading in the polls, ed.), assured that he would not produce major upheavals in fiscal policies and finances in the event of an absolute majority. Incidentally, during the first televised debate between the representatives of the three main coalitions leading in the polls, Bardella appeared, according to experts, to be struggling to provide details on the key issues of his agenda, such as pension reform, and also to defend his promise to restrict access to certain sensitive public service positions to dual nationals. However, again according to experts, none of the three politicians expressed any impressive positions during the debate. The next televised confrontation is scheduled for Thursday.

The spread between the BTp and Bund closed higher. At the end of the session, the yield differential between the Italian ten-year BTp (Isin IT0005560948) and the German ten-year peer maturity stood at 154 basis points from 152 at the previous close. The yield on the benchmark ten-year BTp also increased, rising to 3.99% from 3.93% at yesterday's close.

On the primary side, it should be noted that the Treasury allocated 4.5 billion in reopenings of 6- and 12-month BoTs. In detail, the third tranche of the six-month BoT maturing 29/11/2024 was placed for EUR 2.5 billion. Demand amounted to EUR 3.731 billion and the gross yield stood at 3.685%. The third tranche of the annual BoT maturing 13/12/2024 was also placed. The amount issued was EUR 2 billion against requests for EUR 3.041 billion. The gross yield was 3.631%. The issue settlement date falls on 28 June.

On the currency market, the euro/dollar, is still falling after Fed representative Michelle Bowman "stated that she sees no rate cuts in 2024 but only in 2025," ActivTrades analysts point out. Meanwhile, the yen surpassed 160 per dollar, at its lowest level since 1986 against the greenback, fuelling expectations of new interventions by the authorities in Tokyo. Analysts at Unicredit point out that month-end flows, still stagnant equity markets, relatively stable consumer confidence in the US and, above all, the approach of the first round of the French parliamentary elections continued to weigh on the euro in general. The latest data showed that investors further reduced their net long exposure to the euro-dollar in the week ending 24 June. However, Unicredit's experts believe that the currencies will tend to show little movement until the European political picture clarifies.

Slight decline for the crude oil price after the US reserves figure. Last week, oil stocks in the US increased compared to the previous week, contrary to expectations. They rose by 3.591 million barrels to 460.696 million, according to data released by the Energy Department, with expectations being for a lower figure of 2.3 million. gasoline stocks rose by 2.654 million barrels to 233.886 million, against expectations for a decline of 1.2 million barrels. Distillate stocks, which include heating fuel, declined by 0.377 million barrels to 121.263 million barrels, against estimates for a downward figure of 0.3 million barrels. Plant capacity utilisation fell 1.3 percentage points to 92.2 %, against expectations of 93.5 %.

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