Growth prospects for 2026 moderately optimistic

A breeze of optimism is arriving from the consumption trend in the last quarter of 2025 that "is deflating the bubble of mistrust among families," says Mariano Bella, head of the Confcommercio Studies Centre, commenting on the economic situation. A picture that seems to be turning positive thanks to the slowdown in inflation, with an estimated trend in January 2026 at 0.7% compared to 1.2% in December. Net income, i.e. income available for consumption, returns to growth, surpassing pre-pandemic levels thanks to a +4.6% first 3 quarters 2025 over 2019. Real consumption recovers more slowly (+1.2% 2025/2019) but shows a clear turnaround in the final part of 2025 thanks to increased household confidence. In fact, between October and November 2025, a significant change in confidence is observed: for businesses, month-on-month growth since September for four consecutive months, about +3% compared to July; for households +1.7% in December compared to November, traders' data show. Thus, household mistrust is decreasing and the propensity to consume is increasing. Spending intentions are increasing compared to both 2024 and the first part of 2025. The first results are already visible in the data: Black Friday generated EUR 4.9 billion in spending (+19.5%); Christmas consumption shows a real increase of 2.8% per family; Italian travellers on the Immaculate Conception holiday are growing by 4.9%. Real retail sales also did well, registering two consecutive months of economic growth (+0.5% in October, +0.6% in November), an event that has not occurred since early 2024.

"The reawakening of consumption during Black Friday, Christmas and the start of the sales is certainly a positive sign that confirms the recovery of confidence," emphasises Carlo Sangalli, president of Confcommercio. "In order to make growth more robust, it is necessary to continue to reduce taxes on families and businesses, simplify bureaucracy and create better conditions for the participation of young people and women in the labour market.

A cycle that makes Mariano Bella say 'Fiscal policy, employment growth have compensated for the loss of household purchasing power, tax cuts, especially in favour of lower and middle incomes, have increased net wages, reducing the loss in real terms to three points. At the same time, the number of wage earners has increased, particularly among the most fragile households'.

Business confidence has also been recovering for four consecutive months. Tourism confirmed a positive contribution, with admissions up 1.6% in the October-November two-month period. The strengthening of domestic demand in the fourth quarter (+0.5% trend), with particular emphasis on November and December (+0.6% and +1% respectively), provides a significant contribution to the change in GDP, estimated to grow in January 2026 by 0.5% on December and by 1.2% in the annual comparison. The growth prospects for 2026 are moderately optimistic (+0.9%) and remain highly dependent on the evolution of consumption, in a context of progressive tertiarisation of expenditure linked above all to leisure and services (in December trend +11.1% recreation and culture, +16.4% smartphones and PCs).