Retail Summit 2024

Modern trade, signs expect more than 5,500 openings

Over 33,000 new jobs will be created during the year. New members join Confimprese

by Enrico Netti

5 July 2024

5' min read

Key points

Resilient sector
Signage strategies
New entries

5' min read

In 2024, some 5,580 shops and premises of modern trade signs are expected to open in Italy, an increase of 6.6% over 2023. Of these, about 3,240 are expected in the second half of the year compared to 1,650 in the same period of 2023, and a total of over 33,000 new jobs will be created. These are the estimates elaborated by the Centro studi Confimprese and presented at the Retail Summit organised in collaboration with Jakala and dedicated to the scenarios, challenges and opportunities brought by artificial intelligence, which ended yesterday in Stresa and was attended by about 200 CEOs and top managers of retail brands. On the other hand, the trend of shop closures is expected to be weak and to be around 2% by 2023. The closures are mainly related to the excessive onerousness of room rents and the rationalisation of the sales network.

Resilient sector

"Despite international tensions and macroeconomic dynamics, 2024 should be a positive year for retail networks, driven by the catering sector," comments Mario Resca, president of Confimprese, an association that represents over 450 commercial brands, 90 thousand points of sale and 800 thousand employees. "Compared to the estimates made at the beginning of the year, we are seeing retail holding up well, which, compared to traditional commerce, can count on the strength of the brand developed through distribution chains. However, we are penalised by the asymmetry between off and online. The world of commerce has changed profoundly and reform of the sector is urgent; it is unthinkable to recall and adopt decrees from 1998 or 2001 for online sales, when this channel was unknown. It is necessary for the legislator to revise the entire regulatory system to equalise sales channels and to realise that retail moves a total of 445 billion in turnover. It is the real engine of the Italian economy'.

Although more than 2,000 sales outlets were opened in the first six months of the year, companies have adopted a more cautious approach to the expansion of the sales network at the beginning of 2024, also in the light of a less than brilliant start to the year for consumption, which fell by -0.8% in the January-May 2024 period compared to the same period in 2023, according to data from the Confimprese-Jakala Consumption Observatory. Despite this, the forecasts made at the beginning of the year are being met. The trend remains in the positive area and the data on openings in the second half of the year are an improvement on the same period in 2023 when openings stopped at 1,650.

As far as sales channels are concerned, the sample observed considers travel as a priority for all, in addition to shopping centres, outlets and retail parks. This is confirmed by all chains in the clothing and accessories sector, 82% of those in the catering sector and 62% in 'other retail' (furniture and home accessories, bookshops, toys). There were also significant openings in outlying areas and shopping streets in large cities, favoured by 38% of other retail, 33% of clothing-accessories and 29% of catering. On the other hand, the trend in closures is expected to be weak over the course of the year, amounting to some 2% closures compared to 2023. The causes are linked to the excessive onerousness of the locations, according to 70% of the sample, to the rationalisation of the distribution network (65%) with a clear increase compared to 27% in 2023. There is an increase of about 11 percentage points for the excessive onerousness of the location and 38 percentage points for the rationalisation of the network. On the other hand, the percentages of companies citing the expiry of commercial property contracts (9%) or with the franchisee (4%) as the main reasons are decreasing.

Sign strategies

The new openings will range from classic proximity shops in shopping streets to those in shopping centres, outlets and travel, which have been identified as priority channels for development. In the travel segment in particular, Lagardére Travel Retail plans to open 14 locations in airports, stations and motorways this year. Four will be dedicated to catering and the rest to retail and duty free. "Passenger traffic is growing especially at Fiumicino and in the airports of the South - explains Alberto Niero, CEO of Lagardére Travel Retail Italia -. Next year we will participate in the tenders of our partners, mainly airports, with the goal of at least eight openings".

Catering is a constantly growing sector, as Cristian Biasoni, CEO of Chef Express, anticipates. "The year 2024 sees us marking important results in terms of openings, consolidating our leadership as a multi-channel catering company in Italy. In the first half of the year Chef Express grew important brands in travel channels, one example above all, we brought a brand like Alice Pizza to the motorway for the first time. In airports, stations and motorway service areas, we opened a total of 20 points of sale," emphasises Biasoni. "The second half of the year will see an important opening: we will arrive for the first time at Naples airport, an important airport in terms of traffic volume, with a Lavazza store inspired by the Lavazza Flagship Stores in London and Milan, which will employ 25 people". Development plans also for the other brands in the portfolio. "To date we are the first franchisee in Italy of McDonald's and we will continue with new openings - continues the CEO of Chef Express - also with the exclusive franchisee for Italy of Pret a Manger. These are brands that transversally satisfy the tastes of a very broad target. With this in mind, the growth of Wagamama continues, with new openings expected in the cities to meet the needs of customers looking for Asian fusion cuisine. The year will also be full of openings for Roahouse, if we also consider Calavera, Billy Tacos and Ric Chicken House we will arrive at 35 new establishments".

In other cases, action is taken on the sales network to adapt the format of the sales outlets to the changing customer base. This is what Mondadori retail is doing, aiming both at development in shopping centres and in cities by looking at those locations without bookshops. "We are also rationalising the areas in order to put books at the centre of the core business with the complementary offer of stationery and gadgets," says Francesco Riganti, marketing director of Mondadori retail. "Above all, we are following the evolution of the new generations such as the Z and approaching the very young of the Alfa generation. As a location for development, in addition to shopping centres and city centres we are also looking at neighbourhood and proximity bookshops in order to reach small city centres where there are often no bookshops".

New inputs

On the sidelines of the Retail Summit, the Confimprese board meeting approved the entry of five new members for the quarter: Avs Retail Consulting, a master franchisee developing shops for Milano Cosmetics (wellness), Swixim International (real estate) and Dream Bonuts (bar and coffee shop). In entertainment, Notorius Cinemas has joined. In catering there is Tramezzino.it. Another master franchisee is added, T. Holding, which develops outlets for Vodafone, Iren, Lowengrube and Kfc. Also announced is the partnership with the Milan Franchising Show to be held from 26 to 28 September, where Confimprese will have an institutional stand. Confirmed the launch in November of the 2nd edition of the Its Confimprese to train assistant store managers in retail and catering, where over 4 thousand professional figures are lacking. The participating members are Autogrill, Eataly, Librerie Feltrinelli, Lagardère, EG Italia, Toys Center, Prènatal, Unieuro, Wind 3 and Duca's.