The floor to the manager: Ballie Gifford

'Moncler is among the winners of the next decade'

The company is still run by its founder, as are Joby Aviation and Shopify

3' min read

3' min read

The long term must be the compass that guides investments because only over time is it possible to see the value of a company. The ability to know how to select in advance is therefore fundamental. Tim Garrat partner of the Ballie Gifford company starts from this assumption.

What are the advantages of investing in growth stocks in a scenario of uncertainty such as the current one?

We have been investing in growth companies for more than a century, through various economic cycles and geopolitical challenges. Maintaining a long-term perspective is essential in periods of severe turbulence or catalysing technological and social change, allowing the investor to separate the factors that are truly relevant to investment returns from the news flow.

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Does it still make sense to invest on a global scale in a deglobalising world?

A deglobalising world is a great opportunity for long-term investors. It is a chance to invest in companies that solve new problems and benefit from acceleration in new industries or services. For example, Symbotic's warehouse automation equipment is helping to create resilience in supply chains and respond to labour shortages due to declining populations in many countries. Another example is the cybersecurity company Cloudflare, which benefits from increased demand for cybersecurity with software that can handle over 100 million requests per second during peak periods. De-globalisation can also foster the emergence of new local brands and regional business models with an advantage over large international players due to their in-depth knowledge of their respective markets.

What should be the approach to investing in the long term?

Culture and adaptability are crucial for the long-term success of a company, but these elements cannot be found in balance sheets or broker reports, it takes in-depth knowledge of companies over time. We take a global and open-minded perspective. Often the West is seen as a monolith, relegating all other geographical areas to the sidelines. But the reality is more complex.

But what are the pillars of the long term global growth investment strategy in concrete terms?

Long-term, diversified outlook, unconstrained opportunities and the ability to accept extraordinary upside potential. Many equity investors behave like bond investors, worrying excessively about downside risks instead of looking for unusual stocks that can offer exponential returns over time. For us, it is about investing 'left of the decimal point': it is better to be generically right over ten years than to be clearly wrong in the short term.

IL TITOLO IN BORSA

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And what criteria do you use to select securities for inclusion in the portfolio?

Our selection is based on a well-proven research model that has been applied for more than two decades. We take into account critical elements such as the ten-year opportunity, the assessment of the corporate culture and the consideration of how a company could grow to five times its size.

IL CONFRONTO

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How can companies that will dominate the market be identified early, accepting their volatility?

Growth does not follow a straight line. Over the past decade, the most successful stories have also been the most volatile. Amazon, Tesla and Nvidia have seen price declines of even more than 50 per cent and multiple declines of more than 30 per cent. But we still achieved a return of between 60 and 90 times our initial investment. It is useful to know about companies when they are not yet listed, as it is probably from the private markets that new companies ready to challenge the big players will emerge. It is likely, for example, that SpaceX will prove to be the most disruptive force in the listed telecommunications sector. Stripe, on the other hand, could be a major disruptor for the banking sector. Being patient investors gives us privileged access to these types of companies as well.

I COMPARABLES

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Which companies have the potential to be the big winners of the next decade?

Moncler, Joby Aviation and Shopify continue to be run by founders who accepted many risks. Remo Ruffini, president and CEO of Moncler, took over the company, saving it from bankruptcy in 2004. In Moncler we see the kind of culture and financial characteristics that we have admired in Hermès for the past 20 years. JoeBen Bevirt, founder and CEO of Joby Aviation, went back to basics in an attempt to disrupt the aviation industry with electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft. Tobias Lütke, CEO and co-founder of Shopify, has taken a radically disruptive approach to developing end-to-end tools for online shops. The risks taken are paying off and the company has enormous pricing power because it provides an excellent service to retailers and removes many of the friction factors associated with their business models.

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