Moncler down, quarter beats expectations, but does not warm up analysts

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Moncler down sharply, falling around 2.5% at Piazza Affari, in the aftermath of its first-quarter earnings numbers. Over the past month, however, the stock has risen more than 7%. Sales in the first months of the year were better than expected, but analysts remain cautious, not least because it was pointed out during the conference call that the group has been dealing with the aftermath of the war in the Middle East since March, more so because of the impact on tourist flows.

In detail, the company, which owns the Moncler and Stone Island brands, closed the first three months of 2026 with consolidated revenues of EUR 880.6 million, up 12% at fixed exchange rates compared to the same period in 2025 and 6% at current exchange rates. In particular Moncler brand revenues of EUR 766.5 million increased 12% at fixed exchange rates and 6% at actual exchange rates, while Stone Island revenues of EUR 114.1 million improved 11% at fixed exchange rates and 6% at actual exchange rates. The numbers were above consensus, which estimated total revenue at around €841m, and came as a surprise after the disappointing performances already posted by luxury bigwigs Lvmh, Hermes and Kering.

During the conference call, Luciano Santel, the group's Chief Corporate & Supply Officer, explained that Moncler's sales were up strongly in January and February, while they slowed down in March, suffering from the drop in Asian tourist flows coming into Europe. In April so far they have been in line with March's trend. Stone Island, on the other hand, also did well in March, and the start of April is still in momentum. Indication, the latter, appreciated by financial analysts. The manager was keen to make it clear that sales in the Middle East accounted for very little for the group, around 2% of total revenues, and therefore the impact of the war in Iran was irrelevant, although sales fell sharply in the region. However, Santel was keen to emphasise that the conflict has reduced tourist flows, as evidenced by Global Blue's free tax shopping figures, and this has deteriorated performance in the group's European boutiques.

Analysts appreciated the Asian sales, which, as emerged on the conference call, were 'strong', exceeding analysts' forecasts especially in China, where Santel said the group posted double-digit growth. The manager did not give details of the forecast, but recalledthe group's cyclical business, which experiences a structural slowdown in the spring-summer months. So much so that the company is working on making the brands marketable all year round.

Observers, while appreciating the numbers, remain fundamentally cautious about Moncler's shares. For example, Jefferies decided to raise its price target to EUR 60 from the previous EUR 54, but confirmed its 'Hold' recommendation. According to the business house in the second quarterdirect consumer sales are expected to rise by 8% and not the previously indicated 6.9% and overall sales by about 5%. Year-end sales at this point are seen to be above 3.2 billion, an estimate adjusted upwards by 2%. Earnings per share 2026 were also improved by 3% to EUR 2.34. But the indication is to remain cautious.