Black Monday for Banca Bff after 2025-2026 target cut and change of top management
Analysts still see short-term uncertainty over business development and governance, and a dividend payment for the 2025 financial year 'unlikely'
(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Black Monday for the shares of Bff Bank in Piazza Affari after the institution announced this morning extraordinary provisions for about EUR 95 million for 2025, with a revision of estimates for the whole year and a cut in 2026 targets. At the same time, the bank announced that Massimiliano Belingheri has relinquished his powers as CEO. The bank's share price failed to make any headway in the early stages, only to enter trading with a 31% drop that then widened to a low of EUR 4.106 per share.
In particular, the note released by Banca Bff explained, in view of the potential securitisation, the company conducted an internal review of its factoring portfolio and implemented actions aimed at de-risking and improving the predictability of future profitability. In detail, Bff announced that its Q4 2025 results will include extraordinary provisions of approximately EUR 72m related to adverse legal judgments on receivables from the public administration, an expected one-off of EUR 22m in relation to the lengthening of the timeframe for the collection of interest on arrears, and a restatement of equity 2024, with a reduction of EUR 14m related to errors on certain factoring collections made before June 2023. On the other hand, the bank has approximately EUR 53 million of off-balance sheet revenues - default interest, lump-sum compensation for credit recovery and anatocism - currently accounted for at the time of collection, relating to positive judgments with a final grade of judgement on public sector credit exposures, not yet accounted for.
As a result of these impacts, the bank revised its full-year estimates and reduced its targets for 2026. Thus, Bff now expects an adjusted net profit in 2025 of about 150 million, up 5% year-on-year, with an adjusted Roe of 23%. Net accounting profit is estimated at EUR 70m, including one-offs. Capital generation, the bank said, 'remains solid' with the fully capitalised CET1 ratio 2025 expected at 13.2% -13.7%, and the TCR ratio at 16.4% and 16.9%, both including the effects of extraordinary one-offs and the reduction in NPE. The bank's consolidated financial results for the financial year 2025 will be announced on 10 February. In light of the adjustments and the reported net profit indication, Equita analysts believe that a "unlikely" dividend payment for the 2025 financial year is unlikely or at least expect it to be "significantly revised" downward from our estimates.
Based on the lower growth of the loan portfolio and the collection performance in 2025, the Board also approved a more conservative 2026 budget, revising its 2026 financial targets. Adjusted net profit will rise from EUR 240m to EUR 160m; earnings per share from EUR 1.3m to EUR 0.8m; cost/income ratio below 50%, from below 40%; Return on Tangible Equity to 24%, from above 40%. The bank reports that the business 'remains structurally sound and profitable and is expected to continue to generate earnings growth and robust capital generation'. In the second half of 2026, the bank will present the new Strategic Plan that will benefit from the actions taken.
At the same time, Bff also announced that the board of directors has appointed Giuseppe Sica, the current cfo, as new general manager, following the resignation of CEO Massimiliano Belinghieri, who will continue to support the board as a non-executive director. Belinghieri's resignation, explains a note, comes in order to 'ensure full cohesion and alignment within the board and with the bank's management, which he will in any case continue to support in the role of non-executive director'.
