VAT numbers, the risk of evasion remains for one in two. Even if reliability increases

It is probably still too early to speak of an effect of the composition agreement. Certainly the war against evasion is far from being won. However, some underlying signs from the data of the vat returns relating to the declarations submitted in 2025 must be grasped.

Let us start with the macro scenario that in 2024 saw GDP growth of 2.8% in real terms and 0.8% in nominal terms. Putting this in perspective, the average incomes of the just under 2.7 million VAT numbers that are obliged to fill out the tax report cards (i.e. those with revenues or remuneration of up to EUR 5.16 million and who do not qualify for facilitated regimes) are up 8.6% to EUR 56,100. The number of VAT parcels with a score of 8 to rise of the tax report cards, i.e. the score from which the tax reliability 'stamp' and the benefits of the bonus regime are triggered, is also on the rise: the increase is 2.2% with the number of 'presences' reaching 1.25 million.

Two reflections are called for here. On the one hand, as repeatedly emphasised by the financial administration (most recently in its reply to last week's question time in the Finance Commission), the figure most emphatically highlighted is that of the 200,000 who have moved into the tax reliability area thanks to the arrangement with creditors, with a two-stage mechanism that in the first year leads to an 8 on the report card and in the second to a 10. On the other hand, the improvement in the percentage of reliable taxpayers still leaves the problem of having to 'secure' one out of every two VAT numbers that apply the tax report cards (we are talking about 53.3%), bringing them out of a situation of potential risk of evasion. Potential, let's be clear, because not for everyone a low or insufficient mark is synonymous with under-declared revenues or fees or inflated costs, because there are cyclical or territorial situations that can determine a low mark.

The averages, which should always be regarded as a photograph not capable of capturing the details, do, however, give a picture of many gaps. Notaries are always at the top with a value approaching 337,000 euro, behind them are financial activities with 286,500 euro. Descending towards the bottom of the ranking are businesses and shopkeepers. Bars, ice cream parlours, pastry shops and confectionery production record an average amount of EUR 22,550. Below the average EUR 20,000, on the other hand, are the retail trade of pets and pet food (EUR 19,530) or the retail trade of clothing, footwear, leather goods and accessories (EUR 19,050). Below an average of 16 thousand euro there are, just to give a few examples, beauty and physical wellness services (15,740) and agritourism activities (15,680). Below 6 thousand euro there are, among others, agricultural cultivation, forestry and use of forest areas (5,830) and tanning of hides and skins (4,040). Figures that, however, as this last case shows, should be examined not only through the fiscal lens because they are the representation of sectors that are often suffering greatly as a result of the crisis they are going through.

Just as deep territorial gaps remain if we consider that in the North West the average income is 65,000 euro (an increase of 9.1%), while in the South it is 44,400 euro (an increase of 7%) and on the islands 42,700 euro (an increase of 5.4%).