Mortgage lending is slowing, mortgage transfers are plummeting, and the risk of default remains low
Acceleration in the growth of consumer credit, driven by loans for the purchase of cars and motorbikes and salary-backed loans
The analysis of the 60th edition of the Retail Credit Observatory, compiled by Assofin, Crif and Prometeia, paints an overall positive picture for the Italian household credit market in the first quarter of 2026, albeit within a macroeconomic context characterised by uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. The consumer credit sector is consolidating its upward trend, with an acceleration in the growth of disbursed loans of +4.9% in the first few months of the year. This trend is driven in particular by the robust recovery in loans for the purchase of cars and motorbikes, which rose by 6.2%, also benefiting from incentives aimed at green mobility. However, the most dynamic loan type by far remains salary or pension-backed loans, which recorded an increase of +7.5%, whilst personal loans and instalment credit card spending showed more modest growth of +4.1% and +0.7% respectively.
By contrast, divergent trends are evident in the mortgage sector, which is undergoing a period of transition following the strong expansion recorded in 2025. In the first quarter of 2026, mortgage lending for home purchases slowed, growing by just 4 per cent – a figure which nevertheless continues to underpin the rise in residential property sales (+4.4 per cent). The most disruptive development in this segment, however, is the collapse in mortgage refinancing, which has plummeted by 66.8% due to the gradual expiry of older contracts eligible for more favourable terms. This sharp contraction, combined with inflationary pressures and uncertainty over the future path of interest rates, has led to an overall decline of 5.7% in total mortgage lending to households in the first three months of the year.
Funding geared towards the green transition is now making a vital contribution to the support and development of the entire market. Suffice it to say that in 2025, so-called ‘green mortgages’, intended for the purchase of energy-efficient properties, accounted for 16 per cent of total lending. A similar trend can be seen in consumer credit, where 21 per cent of home-related loans are now allocated to energy efficiency measures (such as solar panels or heat pumps), and 22 per cent of car loans are specifically aimed at sustainable mobility.
At the same time, the sector is undergoing a profound technological and distributional transformation: the digital channel is growing, with 19 per cent of personal loan volumes being arranged entirely online, and the role of third-party networks – such as agents and brokers – is being significantly strengthened; they now facilitate 79 per cent of salary-backed loans and almost half of all mortgages.
From a credit quality perspective, the system is proving to be extremely resilient and risk levels remain at historically low levels, reflecting the soundness of household finances and the prudent lending policies adopted by lenders in recent years. In March 2026, the overall default rate on household credit stood at 1.5%. Analysing the individual sectors, risk in consumer credit has stabilised at 1.8%, with a natural structural difference between personal loans (2.4%) and the less risky special-purpose loans (1.3%). A particularly positive result was seen in mortgage loans, where the risk level fell further to 0.4 per cent, with declining default rates across all maturity categories, including those typically longer and more onerous than thirty years.
