Mps goes ahead with takeover bid on Mediobanca: why Siena does not fear the loss of 13% in the Lion

More detailed investigations will be made in the coming days. And there, possible counter-moves will be understood, particularly on the legal front. But the assessment being made in Siena on the takeover bid launched by Mediobanca on Banca Generali is clear: the blitz by Piazzetta Cuccia does not change the takeover bid on Mediobanca. Or at least it does not change its industrial value.

On the contrary, in some respects, it is reasoned at the upper levels of Mps, Mediobanca's move consolidates the rationale of the takeover bid launched by Siena on Piazzetta Cuccia. And for an industrial reason: Mediobanca's takeover of Banca Generali does nothing more than envisage significant development on the wealth management front, which had in fact been hoped for by Siena for Mediobanca precisely in the presentation of the business plan on the occasion of the launch of the takeover bid. On the other hand, if the takeover bid on Mediobanca were to succeed, Mps would find in the belly of its prey a jewel such as Banca Generali, the fourth largest operator in Italy in terms of total assets (EUR 104 billion in assets), over 360,000 clients and over 2,350 professionals. In short, a valuable asset destined to create cost and revenue synergies, as Mediobanca's CEO Alberto Nagel predicted yesterday.

Of course, the (important) price to be paid would be the loss of the 'dowry' of the stake held in Generali by Mediobanca, given that the operation outlined by Mediobanca's CEO Alberto Nagel envisages a de facto 'switch', with the exit of 13% of Generali's portfolio and the entry of 100% of Banca Generali. Not exactly a detail, given that with such a shareholding Mediobanca now asserts itself as the leading shareholder of the Lion ahead of Caltagirone and Delfin, themselves shareholders of both Mediobanca and Mps and engaged in a tense battle to renew the Lion's managerial structure. The shareholding in Assicurazioni Generali would, in short, be precious to Siena, also due to its financial nature (of weight: 6.3 billion lire), which can be liquidated at any time. However, at least officially, Mps CEO Luigi Lovaglio has always said that Piazzetta Cuccia's stake in Generali is "good to have but not crucial" to the overall project. The ceo acknowledges that Generali 'generates profitability' but this is not decisive 'for the potential' that the bank wants to express with the aggregation. On the contrary, for Lovaglio, Generali's relative contribution in the new combination would be 'less' than it currently is for Mediobanca.

In short, clear words that, tactics aside, signal an underlying tranquillity. So much so that today in the bank chaired by Nicola Maione there is the conviction that the two operations can coexist. Also because the timing, at least theoretically, allows it. Siena's takeover bid for Mediobanca will come onto the market at the beginning of July, once all the missing authorisations have been received, and it will be concluded well before the takeover bid for Banca Generali can see the light of day, since it will be discussed in the autumn. It is not impossible, it is believed in Siena, that the new Mps-branded Mediobanca may go ahead with the Banca Generali deal. The most important test for Mps and its shareholders is the Mediobanca shareholders' meeting on 16 June, when it will become clear what position Caltagirone and Delfin will take on the deal proposed yesterday by CEO Nagel. Then, for Mps, there will be the market to reckon with the Ops. The performance of the securities yesterday (Mediobanca -0.8%, Mps +2%) reduced the discount on the price offered. But the important junction will be the ECB's response on the Ops expected in mid-June. In the same way, it remains to be seen whether there will be room for a possible reduction in the minimum threshold for the takeover bid, now set at 50%.