Finance

Mps plan targets 3.7 billion profit by 2030, shareholders 16 billion

Mps plans to incorporate Mediobanca 'with the aim of creating a single integrated banking group, while preserving distinctive identities, brands and areas of excellence'

by L.D.

27 February 2026

5' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

5' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Mps has approved the 2026-2030 business plan, from which it emerges, thanks to the integration with Mediobanca, as the 'third player in Italia' in the banking sector, with over 7 million customers. The group, reads a note, expects to achieve an adjusted net profit of EUR 3.3bn in 2028 and EUR 3.7bn in 2030 and to distribute around EUR 16bn to shareholders over the plan period.

The industrial project: integration with Mediobanca

The new business plan of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena marks a historic step for the Siena-based group, which after the reorganisation of recent years is now aiming for a dimensional and strategic leap. Everything revolves around the integration with Mediobanca, an operation destined to transform Monte into a larger and more diversified banking group, with a model less dependent on the interest margin and more oriented towards commissions.

In the new structure, as expected, the more retail activities of the Milanese institution will be merged into the Monte, while the more distinctive activities - corporate & investment banking and private banking - will be concentrated in a new unlisted Mediobanca, wholly owned by Mps.

The Quota in Generali

The approximately 13% stake in Assicurazioni Generali, considered a strategic asset both in terms of profitability and in the balances of the Trieste-based lion, will also remain within this perimeter. The shareholding in the Leone "guarantees diversification and stability in the group's profits," said Mps CEO Luigi Lovaglio on the conference call, explaining that "this activity is independent from our main banking cycle and acts as a strategic capital reserve, improving profit visibility and supporting the group's long-term solidity. Revenues from the Generali share contribution in the plan will grow at an average annual aggregate growth rate (cagr) of 8% to EUR 0.8bn by the end of the plan in 2030.

Earnings of 3.7 billion by 2030

The plan sets significant growth targets for revenues and profitability along the 2026-2030 horizon. Adjusted net profit is expected at about EUR 3.7 billion, while return on capital (ROE) is expected to reach about 18%. The improvement in operating efficiency should lead to a reduction in the cost/income ratio, which is expected to fall to about 38% by the end of the plan. Net interest and other banking income is seen progressively increasing to about EUR 9.5 billion in 2030 (from an estimated EUR 7.6 billion in 2025), mainly due to growth in commissions and new business lines.

Capital and remuneration: 16% Cet and 100% payout

Monte aims to maintain the solid capital structure of recent years. The Cet1 ratio is expected to be around 16% over the entire plan horizon. On this basis, the group is aiming for a particularly generous remuneration policy: the plan envisages 100% payout and total distributions to shareholders of around EUR 16 billion over the period. For 2026, in particular, the group is 'considering the possibility' of an advance dividend payment.

The excess capital buffer of EUR 3 billion 'gives us strategic flexibility and shareholder firepower that few banks in Europe can match,' CEO Luigi Lovaglio explained in a conference call. The bank thus keeps its hands free to move in the fluid market environment, also looking at extraordinary transactions. "The capital buffer allows ample strategic flexibility to evaluate new opportunities for both growth and shareholder returns," the bank explained in a note.

The new group model

After the integration with Mediobanca, the group will be organised into different business lines. Alongside retail and commercial banking, the model will consist of: Consumer finance, with Compass as centre of excellence; Wealth management and asset gathering; Private banking; Corporate & investment banking. To these will be added the area of principal investing, which includes, inter alia, the investment in Generali. In the new structure, wealth management, private banking and investment banking activities will have an increasing weight in overall revenues.

700 million synergies confirmed

The plan estimates about EUR 700 million in synergies when fully implemented from the integration with Mediobanca. The path will be progressive and should be completed by 2026, when the main corporate and organisational steps of the operation are expected to be finalised.

Investing one billion in digital by 2030

Among the pillars of the plan is digital transformation. Mps plans to invest around one billion in technology and information systems by 2030. The aim is to improve operational efficiency and speed up internal processes, also thanks to the use of artificial intelligence, with spin-offs on productivity and customer service quality.

The strategy, reads the note, 'is focused on the implementation of a single digital and AI engine to support end-to-end customer journeys, faster decision-making and lending processes, and greater operational efficiency. This technology approach,' the note continues, 'is expected to generate sustainable operational leverage, accelerate group-wide execution, and support the successful integration of the combined perimeter'.

70 million on the table to retain talent

The Mps group expects a cost to retain Mediobanca's talent, essentially bankers, of '60/70 million' in total over the next three years. "Mediobanca has already initiated and is reinforcing these actions with additional initiatives," said the Monte's CEO, Luigi Lovaglio, in a conference call. "Once the situation in terms of organisation will be clarified also certain uncertainties will be removed so we will be able, as I already see, to have a turnaround so bankers entering Mediobanca and Premier rather than leaving" even if "we expect some turnover because there are companies with aggressive recruitment policies".

Exchange by 10 March

Both Mps and Mediobanca, in two separate but specular notes, inform that they are continuing, with the support of their advisors, the preliminary and analytical activities in view of the definition of the merger project, and that these activities should be concluded on 10 March. The process 'will continue to be conducted in compliance with the application of the safeguards required by the regulations for transactions with related parties'.

CEO Lovaglio: 'Let's build a group with sustainable growth and shareholder returns'

"The new business plan represents the natural evolution of the transformation path successfully achieved in recent years. We have designed a clear and effective Group structure, able to fully exploit the platforms of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena and Mediobanca to enhance the customer experience across all channels. We are building a solid, diversified and profitable banking group, capable of generating sustainable growth and very attractive returns for all our shareholders," said Luigi Lovaglio, CEO of Mps.

Luigi Lovaglio, AD MPS

"Together, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena and Mediobanca reinforce the excellence of the Italian banking tradition, combining Mps' strong commercial network with the highly recognised advisory culture of Mediobanca, whose brand and expertise are preserved as a fundamental pillar of our Group. With strategic clarity, discipline in execution and a solid capital position, we are ready for a new phase of value creation, building on deep roots and looking to ambitious new frontiers," he added.