Mps shines after accounts exceed expectations, banks under the lens after quarterly reports

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Brilla Banca Mps at Piazza Affari, while the banking sector is moving at two speeds. As the quarterly earnings season draws to a close, stocks in the sector are moving up Mediobanca, Banca Pop Er, Banca Pop Sondr, turn negative Banca Mediolanum Banco Bpm and Intesa Sanpaolo. Returning to Mps, the stock is benefiting from the above-expected quarterly accounts just published, and from the prospects of integration with Mediobanca, which should be consolidated in the financial statements of the Sienese group starting from the fourth quarter.

Detailing the accounts, Mps posted a net profit of €474m in the third quarter, up 16.5% on the same period of 2024 and higher than analysts' forecasts. For the nine months, profit rose to €1.366bn (€1.566bn a year ago, which, however, included a positive tax effect of €470m). Total revenues were stable at 3.05 billion, with interest margin down 7.4% to 1.638 billion, offset by an increase in net fee and commission income to 1.18 billion. Net operating income was 1.39 billion, of which 453 million in the third quarter alone.

Jefferies calls the accounts 'solid, with capital above expectations and a positive outlook on the 2025 dividend'. The experts note that 'the 100% pay-out provision is a favourable signal for the 2025 dividend compared to our more cautious estimates' and that 'capital is significantly above consensus'. According to Jefferies, then, 'the bank's strength appears to be maintained, as evidenced by an increase in deposits and total financial assets, along with an increase in the number of employees compared to the previous quarter'.

Total deposits - net of Mediobanca - amounted to €204.4bn, up by €4bn compared to June, while loans to customers were essentially stable at €80.7bn (€140.7bn including Mediobanca). The group's equity, including Mediobanca, amounted to EUR 29.1bn, up from EUR 11.5bn in June thanks to the effects of the acquisition and the capital increase for the Opas. In its analysis, Equita emphasises "outperformance of expectations with the main surprise being the lower cost of risk and a combined Cet1 at 16.9%", and that the "business plan of the combined entity Mps-Mb will be presented" in the first quarter of 2026, confirming the positive reading thanks to better-than-expected revenues, costs under control and lower adjustments to loans. For Intermonte, finally, the results were 'better than expected both at an operational and bottom line level'. Interest margin and commissions - they continue - are "in line with our expectations, but with excellent QoQ trends, even if slightly down due respectively to the movement in rates, partly offset by issues with lower rates, and summer seasonality".

CEO Luigi Lovaglio, during the call with analysts, said that thanks to the group's solidity 'we will be able to respect the 100% payout for years to come', clarifying that this year's dividend per share will be 'in line' with the one decided last year. On the payment of an interim dividend, 'we are evaluating it and we will say so at the presentation of the industrial plan', he clarified, while on the subject of the delisting of Mediobanca, the CEO commented that 'it is too early for a decision'. A gross net profit of over 1.6 billion in 2025 is also expected.