Ponte sullo Stretto: 'Revenues up to 800 million per year and profit of 100 million'

With a planned investment of 13 billion euro, the Bridge over the Strait of Messina will generate estimated annual revenues of between 535 and 800 million euro, thanks to an expected traffic flow of 25 million vehicles and 36,000 trains each year. The economic model is based on an average fare per vehicle of 15 euros (10 euros for cars, 20 euros for lorries), with a hypothetical 50-50 distribution of traffic between light and heavy vehicles. The commercial value of rail traffic is estimated at 30% of the total. Based on these projections, revenues from road tolls would amount to around 375 million euros, plus around 160 million from rail traffic, for a minimum total of 535 million. In a more optimistic scenario, with higher demand and full logistics operations, revenues could reach EUR 800 million per year.

The estimated operating profit is about EUR 100 million per year, with a positive return expected as early as the first year of opening to traffic. This is reported by the Centro studi di Unimpresa, which has analysed the project and the amortisation plan set over 30 years: over this period of time, the cumulative value of profits would amount to approximately 3 billion euro, equal to just under 25% of the total cost of the work.

The full recovery of the investment would therefore depend on a mix of direct revenues, indirect benefits on induced activities, tax impacts and possible public contributions. The economic effects on the regions involved, according to current projections, remain modest: for Sicily, the impact on GDP (around 100 billion euro per year) would be less than 1% per year; for Calabria, a region with a more contained GDP (around 40 billion euro), the fallout would be between 1.4% and 2.3%, far from hyperbolic estimates of over 100%.

On the operational front, uncertainties persist with regard to construction time and supply chain dynamics. In other recent infrastructure works in the South, there have been cases in which general contractors have used contractual advances - up to 20% of the total value - for purposes unrelated to the assigned construction site, resulting in blockages in payments to local suppliers and structural delays in works. Passenger transport is not enough: it will be essential to develop an integrated logistics ecosystem that includes modernised and competitive ports, efficient intermodal terminals, high-capacity rail connections and inland distribution platforms connected to the main European routes. The bridge alone will not be able to generate sufficient demand: it will have to be part of a broader strategy capable of making the Mezzogiorno a Mediterranean logistics hub for international traffic.

"The Ponte sullo Stretto bridge project is an infrastructural and strategic challenge of national importance," says Unimpresa vice-president Giuseppe Spadafora, "but its success will depend not only on economic sustainability, but also on the ability to guarantee transparency in tenders, the involvement of local companies, and rigour in executive management. The relationship between inhabitants and the bridge is also crucial. The development of the Strait Bridge will hardly be linked to the number of inhabitants, but to the number of goods that will cross the bridge'.