Nato, Secretary General Rutte's warning: 'Russia may attack within five years'

And how does Putin continue his war against Ukraine? The answer is China. China is Russia's lifeline. China wants to prevent its ally from losing in Ukraine. Without Chinese support, Russia could not continue this war, for example, about 80% of critical electronic components in Russian drones and other systems are made in China. Thus, when civilians die in Kyiv or Kharkiv, Chinese technology is often inside the weapons that killed them, and let us not forget that Russia is also dependent on North Korea and Iran in its fight against freedom with munitions and military equipment.

So far, Putin has only played the peacemaker when it suits him, to buy time to continue his war. President Trump wants to end the bloodshed now, and he is the only one who can bring Putin to the negotiating table. So, let's put Putin to the test, see if he really wants peace or if he prefers the slaughter to continue. It is essential that we all continue to put pressure on Russia and support genuine efforts to end this war. NATO support means that Ukraine can defend itself today, be in a strong position to ensure a just and lasting peace, and be able to deter any Russian aggression in the future.

Billions of dollars in critical military equipment are flowing into Ukraine from the US, paid for by allies and partners. This is firepower that only America can provide. We are doing this through a Nato initiative we call Purl. Since it was launched this summer, Purl has provided about 75 per cent of all missiles for Ukraine's Patriot batteries and 90 per cent of the ammunition used in its other air defence systems. And I want to thank Germany and other allies for their support. Purl is keeping Ukraine in the fight and protecting its people, and I am counting, really, on other allies to contribute to Purl and intensify support for Ukraine in many other ways. For we must strengthen Ukraine so that it can stop Putin in his tracks.

Imagine if Putin got what he wanted: Ukraine under the boot of Russian occupation, his forces pressing against a longer NATO border, and the greatly increased risk of an armed attack against us. This would require a truly enormous change in our deterrence and defence. Nato would have to substantially increase its military presence along the eastern flank, and the allies would have to go much further and much faster in defence spending and production. In such a scenario, we would regret the days when 3.5 per cent of GDP for defence was sufficient. That number would grow enormously and, with that imminent threat, we would have to act quickly. There would be emergency budgets, public spending cuts, economic disruptions and further financial pressures. In that scenario, painful compromises would be inevitable, but absolutely necessary to protect our population. So, let us not forget: Ukraine's security is our security.

NATO's defences may hold for now, but with an economy dedicated to war, Russia may be ready to use military force against NATO within five years. Russia is already intensifying its covert campaign against our societies. Russia's list of targets for sabotage is not limited to critical infrastructure, the defence industry and military installations. There have been attacks on commercial warehouses and shopping centres, and explosives hidden in parcels, and Poland is now investigating sabotage against its railway network.

This year we have seen reckless violations of airspace by Russia. Whether drones over Poland and Romania, or fighter jets over Estonia, such incidents endanger lives and increase the risk of escalation. And while we often think of the risk primarily in terms of the eastern flank, Russia's reach is not limited to land. The Arctic and the Atlantic are other routes, a reminder, once again, of why this Alliance has been so crucial for so many years, on both sides of the Atlantic.

We are working together to ensure the security of all allies, on land, at sea and in the air. We have increased our vigilance and strengthened our deterrence and defence along the eastern flank with Eastern Sentry, and we continue to protect our critical infrastructure at sea with Baltic Sentry. NATO's response to Russian provocations has been calm, decisive and proportionate, but we must be prepared for further escalation and confrontation.

Our enduring commitment to NATO Article 5, according to which an attack on one is an attack on all, sends a powerful message. Any aggressor must know that we can, and will, react forcefully, which is why we took crucial decisions in The Hague: on military spending, on production and on support for Ukraine.

And yes, we are seeing major progress. Look at ammunition production: we have seen a six-fold increase in European production of 155 mm artillery rounds compared to two years ago. I visited a new factory in Germany, in Unterlüß, this year, which plans to produce 350,000 artillery rounds per year. Germany is radically changing its approach to defence and industry to increase military production, and the investments Germany is making in its armed forces are extraordinary. Some 152 billion is planned for defence by 2029, 3.5 per cent of its GDP by 2029. Germany is a leading power in Europe and a driving force in NATO. German leadership is essential for our collective defence. Its commitment to do its part for our security is an example for all allies.

We must be ready because, at the end of this first quarter of the 21st century, conflicts are no longer fought at a distance. Conflict is at our doorstep. Russia has brought war back to Europe, and we must be prepared for the scale of war that our grandparents or great-grandparents endured. Imagine it: a conflict reaching every home, every workplace, destruction, mass mobilisation, millions displaced, widespread suffering and extreme casualties. It is a terrible thought, but if we fulfil our commitments, this is a tragedy we can prevent. NATO is here to protect a billion people, on both sides of the Atlantic. Our mission is to protect you, your families, your friends and your future. We cannot let our guard down, and we will not.

I count on our governments to fulfil their commitments and go further and faster, because we cannot falter or fail. Listen to the sirens all over Ukraine, look at the bodies pulled from the rubble, and think of the Ukrainians who might go to sleep tonight and not wake up tomorrow. What separates what is happening to them from what could happen to us? Only NATO.

It is my duty as Secretary General to tell you what awaits us if we do not act more quickly, invest in defence and continue our support for Ukraine. And I know it is a tough message as we approach the holiday season, when our thoughts turn to hope, light and peace. But we can find courage and strength knowing that we stand together in NATO, with determination and knowing that we are on the right side of history. We have a plan, we know what to do, so let us do it. We must do it.