Nato, Meloni sees Rutte on US election day: here are the scenarios

History is made of coincidences and the arrival today at Palazzo Chigi of the new NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, could be one of them. The meeting with the Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, takes place on the day when the United States decides who will be the next President and never before has the verdict of the US ballot box weighed on the future of Europe and NATO. A taste of this was already seen during Trump's first term in the White House. The echo of the threat to bring down US defence if funding from European countries was not increased has still not died down. And then there was the war in Ukraine, a war in which NATO is deployed in support of Kiev with the US in the front row and decisive on both the military aid and funding front.

The tycoon's possible return is of no small concern also because it adds up to another and no less dangerous threat of a strengthening of American protectionism where Europe is seen as an adversary on a par with China.

The PM and the NATO secretary meet when the polls are still several hours away, but it is a foregone conclusion that the US election verdict will be the main topic of discussion. Of course Meloni and Rutte will also talk about the vote in Georgia and the result in Moldova as well as the prospects in Ukraine but it will be a conversation marked by a big 'if' and therefore inevitably one-sided.

Whatever happens, the future in Europe, too, is closely linked to the outcome of these elections. An initial assessment will come on Thursday and Friday at the summit of the European Political Community and the informal meeting of the European Council. Here too, coincidence has it that the host of the summit will be Hungary led by Viktor Orban, Trump's (and Putin's) closest ally in Europe. An interested spectator for domestic reasons will also be Matteo Salvini who has bet on Trump's victory to catch up. Meloni is well aware of this but it is not the League's vice-premier that worries her at the moment. Not least because she has moved in good time: the choice of Elon Musk to present the Global citizen award proves it.