Atlantic Defence

Nato, Sanchez, and the mystery of the Spanish quota: 2.1 or 3.5 per cent

Strictly military expenditure to reach a total of 5% of GDP is under discussion. The Spanish prime minister speaks of 'constructive ambiguity' and shows a letter from Rutte on flexibility to achieve the targets. For the Spanish opposition he is a liar

by Luca Veronese

Il segretario generale della Nato Mark Rutte (a sinistra) e il premier spagnolo Pedro Sanchez in un incontro di gennaio a Madrid

3' min read

3' min read

Sanchez puts his foot down and Rutte does not yield. The confrontation between Spain and NATO over defence spending targets remains open. Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, pressed by the left wing of his party and government allies, reaffirmed, on the eve of the Atlantic Alliance summit, a kind of Spanish exception to the targets agreed in the Atlantic Alliance under pressure from Donald Trump.

Sanchez claimed the right to decide how to achieve the targets and posted on social media the letter in which NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is said to have confirmed to Spain 'the flexibility to determine its own sovereign path to achieve the capability targets'.

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In other words, the Spanish leader does not want to and cannot bind himself strictly to the two agreed numbers: 3.5 per cent of GDP in defence spending and 1.5 per cent in spending extended to other support areas, for a total of 5 per cent in relation to the gross domestic product of each country.

And yet Rutte - even after registering some discontent among the other member states - seemed to contradict Sanchez. 'All NATO members, including Spain, have agreed,' he said, 'with the Alliance's new goal of spending a total of five per cent of gross domestic product on defence. He went on to clarify that Nato has no opt-out: 'We are in an Alliance,' he said, 'where we fight together and, if necessary, where we suffer and die together for our collective defence... and Spain has also agreed with the goals.

The final declaration of the NATO summit will probably not help to understand how things stand: beyond the clashes and impatience of some countries, everyone will be able to say that they are right. According to some advisors close to Sanchez, the text that will be approved will give Spain the opportunity to decide how to deploy the necessary resources to meet its military spending targets. At the Moncloa in Madrid they speak of 'constructive ambiguity', insisting on 'flexibility', from which 'other countries, such as Italy', called upon to make an enormous effort to reach 3.5% of GDP (given that 1.5%, including various types of expenditure, will not create problems for governments), could also benefit.

Spain - this is what they say in the Madrid government - should therefore sign the concluding declaration, where the target of 5% of GDP will be enshrined, but it will be able to set its own 'sovereign path' to reach the 'capacity targets' that are defined every four years for each country in NATO. Sanchez said he will commit up to 2.1% of GDP. The right-wing oppositions attacked him: 'Lies have very short legs. Sanchez, the liar without borders, has already been denied,' wrote the number two of the Populars, Cuca Gamarra, on social media.

After a new reminder from Rutte, came a further clarification from Madrid. Rutte's is 'an opinion, an evaluation, but our armed forces technicians have estimated that a defence expenditure of 2.1% of GDP is sufficient to fulfil the commitments,' government spokeswoman Pilar Alegria told a press conference at the end of the Council of Ministers. "We will meet the commitments, but to achieve them we will not invest more than the 2.1% that Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said," argued Alegria, who then described Spain as a "serious and reliable" ally in Nato.

The tension in NATO also emerged from the words of Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. "I take nothing for granted. The five per cent agreement is not yet finalised: don't take it for granted until we have made a decision,' he said during a meeting with some international media. "I think it would be a very negative signal, not least from the European members of Nato, if we were not able to make such a decision," he added, pointing out that he saw no room for "national exceptions", such as the one requested by Spain.

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