NATO summit. Here's what Meloni aims to get from Merz-Macron and Trump
Work is being done both for a meeting on the sidelines with Trump, to seal the 'special relationship', and for face-to-face meetings with those in Europe who share the need for flexibility to put pressure on Ursula von der Leyen.
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Key points
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Giorgia Meloni will arrive in The Hague this afternoon. And the climate of the NATO summit that will have to approve the increase of defence and security spending to five per cent of GDP by 2035 has already changed. Thanks to the truce between Iran and Israel announced in the night by Donald Trump. Despite the violations, which have aroused the wrath of the US president even towards Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the move turns the summit into cement for the Atlantic alliance and, together with Pedro Sanchez's Spain's long-suffering yes to the agreement, removes Meloni from embarrassment: the Italian Prime Minister will be able to confirm her closeness to the US without walking on eggshells and will be able to defend the agreement reached between the 32 NATO countries as "adhering to Italy's demands".
Détente triggered by truce
The NATO meeting with bombing in progress, with the US directly entering the war on Israel's side, would have been complicated. Difficult to explain to European public opinion (with Giuseppe Conte's M5S demonstrating outside the summit) the need for rearmament for the purpose of defence against increasing external threats, Russia in primis, with the main ally engaged in an unprecedented attack on a sovereign country, albeit one led by a vicious theocracy. Easier to do so in the face of a broken promise: Trump had said that the US strike would be targeted and swift and that the aim was to negotiate a nuclear farewell.
The return of the Spain alert
.A further distracting element is the return of Spain's alarm, after Sanchez's 'no' in recent days seemed to make the agreement wobble and even jeopardise Trump's participation in the summit. "It was a no for internal use," commented qualified Italian government sources. This is confirmed by the rocambolic resolution of the affaire, with the Spanish Prime Minister forced into a balancing act to justify membership and NATO sources denying him on the existence of a 'derogation' only for the Iberians.
Italy likes the agreement
.As explained today in Il Sole 24 Ore on newsstands, in ten years Italy should go from the current 45 billion (equal to about 2% of the declared GDP reached), of which 35 billion in defence and 10 in security, to 145 billion (100 billion in defence and 45 in security). A very ambitious target, but the government points out two positive passages of the agreement: the absence of a 0.2% constraint per year and the review of the entire agreement in 2029. When - it is the subtext - the whole scenario may have already changed.
Flexibility, the game moves to the EU
.For these reasons, the green disk turned on by Italy (a proof of the loyalty to the US assured by Meloni to Trump) at the same time opens a front with the EU: the request for flexibility advanced by Meloni in her communications to parliament on the eve of the European Council. "The need remains firm, at European level, to make the rules of the stability pact compatible with the increase in defence spending agreed with the allies," the premier said. "In particular, with reference to the excessive deficit procedures, with regard to which it is necessary to achieve equal treatment and avoid risks of asymmetrical applications." In short, we return to the usual Italian point: those who have reduced fiscal space must not be penalised.
