Neet, 9% threshold by 2030: an achievable result for Italy

The target set by the European Union to bring the incidence of those who are neither in employment nor in education (Neet) below the 9 per cent threshold of 15-29 year olds by 2030 is ambitious but not unachievable.

The average level of Neet in the EU27 has fallen in recent years, reaching 11% in 2024, partly as a result of programmes and targeted investments initiated by Brussels. Several European countries have already hit the target: Neets are below the 9% threshold in Germany, Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway and Iceland.

In Italy, important steps forward have been made: Neet 15-29 year olds were 22.1 per cent in 2019 and are now 15.2 per cent (16.6 per cent for girls). This number is shrinking, but still remains at over 1.3 million young people. In a growing labour market, where the number of employed persons has reached 24.3 million, young people and women are still two categories with wide margins for improvement, especially compared to the employment levels of the EU.

Having a cohort of young people without a job and with no education or training in place is a condition that neither Italy nor Europe can afford. First of all because of the ageing of the population and the denatality, which are leading to a reduction in the population of training and working age. There were more than 13 million young people between 15 and 29 years of age in Italy in 1994, and this will drop to 8.9 million in 2025. In addition to the mismatch between labour supply and demand, therefore, it is the lack of generational turnover that leaves part of the demand for employees of companies unsatisfied, especially in some production districts. It is therefore necessary to make the most of people of working age (and to their full potential).

Another challenge for the European economy is the progressive 'tertiarisation', linked to new technologies. The number of hours worked and employees in agriculture and manufacturing is shrinking, while services continue to grow. The so-called twin transition, i.e. the combination oftechnological-digital and environmental transition, has the effect of creating new 'jobs' but also that of changing many existing professions, revolutionising their modalities and timing. This transition requiresadequate training levels: it is no coincidence that the share of university graduates in the employed is increasing (in 2023 in Italy they were 25.5 per cent) and that the share of those with a qualification up to the middle school diploma is decreasing.