New sales at Cucinelli, nine-month revenues tomorrow

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Brunello Cucinelli again came under the hammer of sales. The stock, after a positive start, took a decisive downward turn. In the session of Monday 29 September, the shares had recovered 9%, after the 17% slide recorded between Thursday and Friday last week and provoked by the accusations and criticisms contained in the report by Morpheus Reserach, which in particular pointed the finger on sales in Russia, which allegedly circumvented sanctions, as well as on the application of aggressive discounting on excess stocks. Encouraging sales on Brunello Cucinelli was the news from Consob announcements that the Helikon hedge fund has short positions on the shares, amounting to 0.61% of the capital. Although the hedge fund was only established in 2020, it has a history of success and is therefore much followed by investors in Piazza Affari. The company is controlled by Rule 72, which in turn is controlled by the former manager of Kairos, Federico Riggio. The well-known financier, Paolo Basilico, also entered the capital of Rule 72 in 2021.

In recent days, the Umbrian maison has returned Morpheus Resarch's findings to sender and has also indicated that it is considering legal action. Not only that. It announced that it had brought forward to tomorrow the release of its preliminary sales figures for the third quarter, which it will then publish definitively on 16 October, as planned for months. The decision was welcomed by the market and analysts, who had already published reports on Friday in favour of the company, believing in its good performance and downplaying Morpheus' criticism.

Equita, meanwhile, is back to confirming its 'Hold' recommendation on Cucinelli's shares, i.e. to be cautious, but calculates a target price of €103, i.e. higher than the stock market price. "The company has decided to bring forward the date of the earnings release, with the aim - we think - of being able as soon as possible to officially clarify with analysts and investors its position with respect to the accusations on sales in Russia made by the recent short report by research firm Morpheus," they wrote in today's report, recalling that thanks to the eve's rebound, the ratio between price and expected profits to 2026 stands at 40 times, a level in any case lower than the three-year historical average of 49 times. As for third-quarter sales, Equita expects numbers consistent with the company's own estimate of an overall revenue growth of 10% for the full year 2025. "In detail, we estimate revenues for the third quarter at 332 mln (consensus at 327 mln), up 10.7% year-on-year (+11.7% at constant rates), similar to the second quarter trend (+11.4% at constant rates)." Geographically, the sim predicts a slowdown for Italy, linked to the timing of wholesale deliveries, and double-digit growth and slight sequential acceleration for the other geographies (Rest of Europe, Americas and Apac).