New Dem candidate? A leap in the dark

Can Joe Biden really be replaced by another candidate? Those in the Democratic Party who would like to find a new candidate immediately have to reckon with the facts and the calendar.

First of all, we have to understand what the elder Biden intends to do: without a step backwards, nobody can take the nomination away from him. Biden encountered minimal opposition in the primaries and secured 99% of the delegates: in the absence of extraordinary events, and of a clear alternative plan, it is to be ruled out that the president will be betrayed by his loyalists at the Convention that, on 19 August in Chicago, will officially designate the Democratic candidate for the White House.

Any challenger would have to announce his candidacy before the formal vote, opposing Biden directly, thus risking splitting the party, with Donald Trump's thanks. There is no precedent for this: in 1968, Democratic President Lyndon Johnson withdrew from running for a new term, but he did so in March, when the primaries had not yet ended. And he withdrew of his own accord, while protests over the war in Vietnam were growing in the country.

The Democratic National Committee, the party's highest body, does not have the power to replace a candidate, so the 'removalists' rely on the intercession of his wife Jill, or pressure from charismatic figures such as Barack Obama or Bill Clinton, but so far they have obtained nothing more than predictable reassurances about the 81-year-old leader's psychophysical fitness.

Time is the second major obstacle for those who want to take Biden out: the presidential elections in early November are just over four months away, and changing horses in the race would mean starting from scratch with the campaign. The Democrats have so far spent about 346 million dollars to support Biden, there is about 212 million dollars in the treasury but it is not certain that it can be used for an alternative candidate.