New markets and sound finances: industrial clusters are weathering the difficulties

The complexity of the current situation is, in any case, clearly evident in the wide variation in results, because whilst it is true that in 2024, 13.4 per cent of companies in the district had robust EBITDA of over 20 per cent, close to the 2023 highs, the proportion of firms with negative margins has jumped from 9.3 per cent to 11.9 per cent.

However, the system is supported by the ‘strong backing’ of the districts, with net assets as a percentage of liabilities rising to 36.6 per cent – 2.6 percentage points higher than the previous year and 6.3 percentage points above 2021 levels. As always, cash and cash equivalents remain at high levels (9% of total assets); these are key resources for self-financing future investments and addressing the uncertainties and risks of the current environment.

Added to the complexities of tariffs is now the new shock in the Middle East, a region which, prior to the outbreak of the conflict in Iran, was showing strong growth rates: overall, in 2025, exports from Italian industrial districts to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Iran and Bahrain reached almost €7 billion, €2.7 billion more than in 2019, accounting for over 10 per cent of the total increase in industrial cluster exports during that period.

“The situation is complex,” explains Gian Maria Gros Pietro, Chairman of Intesa Sanpaolo, “but these industrial clusters give Italia a competitive edge that others lack, with the capacity for specific and distinctive production: whilst we may not excel in economies of scale, we do, however, benefit from significant economies of variety, which represent a major strength”.

Looking ahead, 2026 is expected to be a year of growth, with revenue growth in the region of 3.4–4 points.

“Achieving these results in the face of trade barriers, tariffs, wars and uncertainty,” explains Gregorio De Felice, chief economist at Intesa Sanpaolo, “is by no means a foregone conclusion. And it is something that others are not actually doing, as the latest figures show, with Italian data exceeding both the EU average and that of Germany.”

The diversification of our export markets – as explained in the report – is set to benefit from the new trade agreements between the European Union and Mercosur, India, Australia and Mexico. In particular, Mercosur’s limited share of the districts’ total exports suggests that there is considerable potential for growth. Even for the mechanical engineering sector, which is the main sector in terms of the value of the districts’ exports, Mercosur accounts for only a limited share of global sales, amounting to around 2 per cent. In other sectors, the share is even smaller, generally ranging from around 0.3 per cent for intermediate goods in the fashion and furniture sectors to 1 per cent for other intermediate goods and the food and drink sector.

In terms of investment intentions, the evidence gathered shows that the expected growth is primarily in areas linked to self-generated energy and technology (primarily AI and cybersecurity), with a marked downward revision for the refurbishment of facilities and plant, or for marketing and communication, and even negative expectations for training and welfare, or for machinery and equipment.

Looking at growth trends, it is clear that medium-sized and large enterprises are playing an increasingly significant role. It is here that, over the period 2022–24, the prevalence of ‘champion’ companies – in terms of growth, profitability and capitalisation – is greatest: there are just under 1,300 in total, accounting for 7 per cent of the total, with higher proportions in the agri-food sector (10.1 per cent) and the engineering sector (7.7 per cent).