Logistics

New sea transport alarm, container freight costs tripled

Transits in Suez halved: 700 ships to the Cape of Good Hope in July. Zanetti: 'Unthinkable that the costs of the green transition should only be borne by the private sector'

by Raoul de Forcade

Industrial commercial port in the morning. Ancona, Italy

3' min read

3' min read

While traffic through the Suez Canal continues to decline to the point where transits are practically halved, container freight rates are growing exponentially again, reaching peaks of +306% (on the Shanghai-Genoa route) compared to last year.

Moreover, global seaborne trade increased by 2.2% in 2023 to 12.3 billion tonnes and will grow by 2.4% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025. The situation in the Red Sea, therefore, does not interrupt the flow of maritime transport.

This is recorded in the Report 2024 Talian maritime economy, prepared by Srm (the research centre reporting to Intesa Sanpaolo), which also highlights how for the Mediterranean, despite the ongoing conflicts, an average annual growth rate of just over 3% is expected between now and 2028, compared to a world average of 2.5%. Also in the Mare nostrum, short sea shipping traffic recorded its strongest ever, at European level, with almost 600 million tonnes handled. As for the green transition, the use of alternative fuels continued to progress, with 6.5% of the seagoing fleet able to use new, less polluting propellants. This percentage will reach 25% by 2030. As of July 2024, 50.3% of all ship orders are for vessels using alternative fuels (in 2017 this share was only 10.7%).

"The data presented by Srm," said Mario Zanetti, the Confindustria president's delegate for the Maritime Economy and leader of Confitarma, "clearly highlight the importance of both maritime transport and global maritime trade, which is confirmed as the backbone of international trade. It also emerges that maritime transport is the most efficient mode in terms of carbon emissions. Indeed, the sector is implementing the green transition targets, but to reach the net zero target by 2050, zero-emission fuels are not currently available in the quantities needed, and the costs of the transition are enormous. Suffice it to say that to halve current emissions, the shipping industry would have to invest USD 1.4 trillion. It is unthinkable that this could all be borne by companies alone: private investment, which is still there, needs to be matched by public support'.

Zanetti then added that, "at a crucial time like this, it is necessary to implement the priorities outlined in the Plan for the Sea, the Government's strategic document, defining together the actions to be undertaken, in a collaborative and development logic for our country. For this reason, Confindustria, in order to relaunch the competitiveness of the Maritime Economy sector, has adopted a new industrial policy approach built on three strategic drivers: ports, carriers and fleets, and people and their skills".

Among the numerous data in the report presented yesterday in Naples by Massimo Deandreis and Alessandro Panaro, Srm's director general and head of maritime & energy respectively, it emerges that, between January and June 2024, average daily transits in Suez have fallen to 37 passages from 71 the previous year (-48% compared to the same period in 2023), leading to longer distances (ships pass through the Cape of Good Hope), higher freight rates, an increase in ships in circulation as well as an increase in emissions. The ships most affected are container ships (-69% of passages), car carriers (-84%) and LNG (-93%). On the other hand, an average of 99 ships per day passed through Good Hope between January and June 2024.

"As of 10 July 2024," Deandreis pointed out, "about 700 ships, or 30 per cent of the total container capacity, are currently diverted to the Cape of Good Hope: the vast majority of the capacity employed on the Far East-Europe trade route. Meanwhile, after a period of decline, freight rates are rising again. According to the Drewry world container index, one of the most widely used indicators in the world for assessing freight rates, as of 18 July 2024, the average freight rate for a 40-foot container reached $5,937, up 286% in one year; and the same container, transported from Shanghai to Genoa, again as of 18 July, cost as much as $7,727, up 306% from the same date in 2023. The container shortage is also making itself felt again, due to re-routing, resulting in a need for 7% more capacity. The shortage is being felt at many ports in Asia, where all new containers, Srm notes, are booked until August. And the capacity shortage could last until October 2024.

Commenting on the data presented, Gian Maria Gros-Pietro, chairman of Intesa Sanpaolo, pointed out that Srm notes, among other things, "that about 47% of Italian maritime handling takes place in southern ports, but the economy of the Mezzogiorno constitutes about 20% of the Italian total. It is clear that the southern ports of call perform an important function at the service of the entire national economy'.

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