Budget Law

New Transition 5.0 and ZES refinanced, but not a step change

How the incentives for capital goods and investments in the South are changing

by Carmine Fotina

Nuova Transizione 5.0 e Zes rifinanziate, ma non è un cambio di passo

2' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

2' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

The draft budget law that after approval in the Council of Ministers is about to reach Parliament does not seem to outline any new trajectories for industrial policy.

What has emerged from the approved scheme, and net of possible additions that will be voted on by the Chambers, is a variation or refinancing of already existing instruments.

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Incentives for investments in capital goods change name and fiscal aspect. The mechanism developed by the Ministry of Enterprise and Made in Italy enters into the manoeuvre as the 'new Transition 5.0 plan': the era of tax credits ends and there is a return to maxi-depreciation, i.e. increased deductions that reduce taxable income.

But the substance, on the side of the objectives, does not change. We are dealing with horizontal incentives, i.e. outside the choice of strategic industrial sectors, based on the purchase of goods, with an extra bonus if the investments lead to a reduction in energy consumption.

Resource resizing

If we then enter into the field of the resources made available, a clear downsizing compared to the current picture emerges. 4 billion comes into the manoeuvre for expenditures made in 2026, with a tail for deliveries made by 30 June 2027.

For the current year, on the other hand - by adding the resources available for the old 4.0 plan and those of the NRP for Transition 5.0 - the tally comes to almost 5.3 billion. Then tax credits for technological innovation - both in the basic version and in the increased version for digital technologies and energy transition - and those for design and aesthetic activities remain off the manoeuvre's menu. In this case, there is no extension in the bill, and at the end of the year the incentives will expire.

Another robust chapter is the refinancing of the tax credit for investments in the Special Economic Zone of Southern Italy. 2.3 billion for 2026 and 1.7 billion for the two-year period 2027-2028. But even here there is no sign of a change of pace in the strategy. After the transition from the regional and port-based Zones to the Single Zone, one would have expected a more selective definition of the priority sectors and sectors in which to concentrate the firepower represented by the subsidies.

Because otherwise it is possible that investments, including land and warehouses, will be incentivised that are not really additional or that do not really affect productivity levels in southern Italy. The risk, in other words, is that the SEZ will remain a compensatory instrument without becoming a real industrial policy weapon.

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