Nexi at an all-time low after accounts and plan, disappointing guidance and lack of buyback

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Nexi collapsed on the stock market after the presentation of its new strategic plan and 2025 results. The stock, which did not make an immediate price at the start, fell more than 20 per cent to EUR 2.643, hitting an all-time low. What disappointed the market were the lower-than-expected targets and the lack of a buyback plan. Over the next three years, the payments group aims to increase the dividend by 5% per year with a total distribution of more than 1.1 billion.

For 2026, the coupon rises 20% to EUR 0.3 per share for a dividend payout of EUR 350m. Last year the total return of capital to shareholders was EUR 600 million (+20% on 2024), between coupon and buyback. "Indications that no buyback plans will be implemented appear very disappointing, as do expectations for revenue and Ebitda trends over 2026/2028 compared to what was initially expected," Intermonte analysts comment (recommendation 'Outperform' and target price at EUR 5.6).

"This year we preferred to focus on the dividend - which is at the highest level in our industry internationally - because this gives a much sharper and much clearer message to the market of continuity over time, while the buyback is always interpreted as something that may or may not be there," explained Nexi CEO Paolo Bertoluzzo, during Capital Markets Day, pointing out that the group will have available 1.3 billion that it will be able to use to "continue to reduce leverage, for some small acquisitions or to redistribute back to shareholders in the form of dividends or buybacks".

According to the plan - presented today during the company's Capital Markets Day - the return to mid-single-digit revenue growth, as well as the return to ebit margin expansion, is expected from 2028 onwards: 'much worse than our expectations and the consensus', Intermonte points out. Cumulative excess cash - amounting to EUR 2.4bn over the plan period - is also 'lower than expected at EUR 2.64bn'. As for 2026 guidance, it envisages slight revenue growth in line with 2025 (around +2%) and flat Ebitda year-on-year, compared to "our estimates and consensus of +3%" and excess cash generation of 750m, compared to expectations of 820m. 2025 ended with a loss of EUR 3.4 billion, following the non-cash goodwill impairment of about EUR 3.7 billion, while normalised earnings (at current exchange rates) rose to EUR 783.3 million (+7.2%).