Sportwear

Nike, -35% net profit in the quarter. Disappointing estimates for 2026

The group expects 'low single digit' sales for 2026 and a 2-4% decline in the current quarter

by Mo.D.

FILE PHOTO: A man walks past Nike booth with installation of shoes at the 8th China International Import Expo (CIIE) venue in Shanghai, China, November 5, 2025. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/File Photo REUTERS

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

Nike's relaunch is taking longer than hoped due to a combination of both internal and external factors. This was emphasised by the CEO of the sportswear group Elliott Hill when presenting the accounts for the third quarter (ended February) and the directions for the coming months. The group estimates a 'low single digit' decline in sales until the end of 2026 and estimates a 2-4% decline in the current quarter, which is higher than analysts' forecasts. The estimates include a 20% drop in sales in China after a -7% drop in the third quarter. In the third quarter Nike reported revenues of $11.27 billion (flat on the previous year) and net profit down 35% to $520 million.

In after-hours trading in New York after the release of the data, the stock lost 9.1 per cent at 8 p.m. From the beginning of the year until Tuesday's close, the performance was already down 17 per cent.

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Disappointing estimates

For the current quarter, revenues are expected to decline between 2% and 4%, while for the rest of the calendar year the contraction is expected to be in the low single digits, management told investors during the results conference call on Tuesday evening. In contrast, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg were forecasting growth of 2% in the quarter and a stronger acceleration in subsequent periods.

"This is a complex job and some components are taking longer than expected," said Nike CEO Elliott Hill, adding: "But the direction is clear, the urgency is real and the foundations are getting stronger.

The sportswear group, committed to regaining market leadership after a prolonged decline in sales, is facing headwinds on a global scale. Nike is experiencing high inventory levels in Europe and the Middle East and trade disruptions related to the ongoing conflict, factors that could generate more operational volatility. Critical issues, along with weakness in Greater China and other areas, have overshadowed solid results in North America.

Relaunch and critical issues

The new CEO is working to put the core business back on a growth path, with a more targeted focus on sports such as basketball and running. However, pressure is mounting to reverse the negative trend in China and for the Converse brand, whose sales in the previous quarter fell more than expected.

In the third fiscal quarter, Nike reported revenues of $11.3 billion, higher than the average estimate compiled by Bloomberg but essentially unchanged year-on-year. While North American consumers are showing signs of resilience, Europe and the Middle East are showing new criticalities.

"The war is probably affecting EMEA and tariffs are weighing on gross margins," observes Poonam Goyal, senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, predicting that the pressures "will persist in the short term".

The difficulties are also affecting Greater China, where revenues are expected to decline by around 20% in the current quarter. The Chinese market is increasingly driven by promotional dynamics, with consumers more cautious due to the economic slowdown, the property crisis and uncertainty in the labour market, while competition has intensified.

The sportswear division was also a critical element in the last quarter, characterised by high levels of discounting and a double-digit decline. "A return to a healthy sportswear business is essential and crucial to our revival, as it will continue to be a key component of the overall market and our growth," Hill said.

Last quarter's results, which include much of the key Christmas sales period, show a further recovery of the wholesale channel in North America. The company expects moderate growth in the region for the remainder of the year, supported by a strong order book for the holiday season and the recovery of shelf space relative to competitors.

Further longer-term strategic directions will be disseminated at an investor day planned for this autumn.

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