Nomisma, a 2025 of growth and stabilisation for real estate

A slow recovery following the deceleration of 2023. The property market, surveyed by Nomisma's dedicated Observatory, is at the start of a new cycle, but tensions and geopolitical instability are keeping the curve's rise moderate.

The results of the survey - which follows the first one presented at the end of March - were presented on Thursday 10 July at the Assolombarda Auditorium in Milan, and show a 2025 characterised, in the forecasts, by a stabilisation of the growth recorded in the first part of the year.

"The reversal recorded in 2024, in which purchases and sales compared to 2023 began to rise again, is slowly being confirmed in this six-month period too," explains Elena Molignoni, head of Nomisma's Real Estate division, "and for next year we expect a stable market. But it is a slight recovery, not a robust one, because the criteria for granting credit are still rigid. Banks fear the uncertainty of the geopolitical context'.

In fact, purchases and sales with mortgages have increased, but they have not reached the levels of 2021, when they exceeded 50% of total purchases and sales. This is unlikely to happen in the next three years, notes Nomisma senior project manager Johnny Marzialetti. Lenders remain cautious with new concessions, in the event that inflation may rise again, eroding households' spending power.

As for renegotiations, however, the increase due to the gradual fall in rates will easily decrease due to the narrowing difference between fixed and variable rates.