Novo Nordisk collapses in Copenhagen. Lower forecasts due to US market

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor)- Novo Nordisk slumps on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange after the drastic cut in guidance for 2025 caused by below-expected sales in the US, particularly for the anti-obesity drug that has made the group famous (and rich). The pharmaceutical laboratory's stock ended at the bottom of the Stoxx Europe 600 index. Novo Nordisk 'has updated its full-year forecast for 2025, with sales growth expected to be between 8% and 14% and operating profit growthb>between 10 and 16%, both at constant exchange rates,' a statement said. On 7 May, the company had indicated that it expects sales growth in 2025 of between 13% and 21% and Ebit growth of between 16% and 24%. Novo also points out that the increase in sales and operating profit in Danish kroner is now expected to be4 and 7 percentage points lower respectively than at constant exchange rates, mainly due to the depreciation of the dollar exchange rate against the Danish krone. The new sales forecasts for 2025 'are due to lower growth expectations for the second half of the year', linked to 'lower growth expectations for Wegovy in the US obesity market, lower growth expectations for Ozempic in the US diabetes GLP-1 market, as well as lower than expected penetration for Wegovy' in some markets, Novo points out. Wegovy in the US suffers from the 'persistent use' of galenic compounds (sold online or by pharmacies) using similar principles, 'slower than expected market expansion, and competition'.

Novo Nordisk explains that 'despite the expiry of the 22 May grace period granted by the Fda for galenic compounds, market research carried out by Novo Nordisk shows' that such 'dangerous and illegal' preparations continue to be on the market. "Multiple entities continue to advertise and sell compounds based on Glp-1 (the active ingredient in Wegovy, ed.), under the false pretext of 'customisation'," the Danish company points out, pointing out that it is pursuing various strategies, including litigation, "to protect patients from counterfeit semaglutide-based drugs." Novo Nordisk states that it is 'deeply concerned' and emphasises that in the US 'without aggressive intervention by federal and state regulators and law enforcement agencies, patients will continue to be exposed to the significant risks posed by counterfeit 'semaglutide' drugs made with illicit or non-authentic foreign active pharmaceutical ingredients'. The updated operating profit growth forecast reflects lower sales growth prospects, partially offset by lower spending. A negative single-digit impact on operating profit growth related to the acquisition of the three former Catalent manufacturing sites remains included in the forecast. The expected free cash flow now in the range of DKK 35-45 billion reflects the lower-than-expected revenues. The company also gave some indications for the first half year, which see an increase in sales of 18% and operating profit of 29% at constant currencies. The full figures will be released on 6 August.

Meanwhile, the company has appointed Maziar Mike Doustdar as its new CEO. He currently holds the position of Executive Vice President of International Operations and will lead the company from 7 August. Doustdar will succeed Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen at the helm next week and will also become group president. Jorgensen, who was dismissed in May after the company's shares fell more than 50 per cent in 12 months, will then leave the group.