Novo Nordisk plunges in Copenhagen, negative estimates for 2026 weigh in

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Novo Nordisk slipped on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange, plunging more than 18%. The share price (among the largest capitalisations in Europe) was affected by the publication of negative forecasts for 2026. In detail, the pharmaceutical giant estimates for the current year that sales will fall between 5% and 13% at constant exchange rates. Analysts had expected a decline of 1.4%. The sales outlook, the company specifies, is affected by lower realised prices, including impacts related to the Most Favoured Nations agreement in the US and the patent expiry of the semaglutide molecule in some markets, as well ascompetition in the US. Adjusted operating profit is also expected to decline between 5% and 13% at constant exchange rates. Sales and operating profit for 2026, the company clarified in a note, will be positively impacted by a reversal of sales discount provisions of USD 4.2 billion related to the US drug pricing programme.

According to analysts, the forecasts have 'immediately wiped out most of the important gains the stock has made so far in 2026'. Added to this are 'Donald Trump's crusade against drug prices, patent expiry and competition'. Should the magnitude of the share price decline continue, the group - which has initiated a share buyback programme -could lose around DKK 200 billion (EUR 26.77 billion) in market capitalisation by the end of the day. However, the year had started well for Novo Nordisk, thanks to the authorisation to sell its flagship anti-obesity treatment, Wegovy, in tablets in the US, which had encouraged investors.

Lights and shadows for 2025, which saw operating profit down 1% in Danish kroner, but up 6% at constant exchange rates to DKK 127.7 billion. The company specifies that if it had not incurred business transformation costs of approximately DKK 8bn, operating profit would have increased by 6% in Danish kroner and 13% at constant exchange rates. Sales in the US business increased by 3% in Danish kroner (+8% at constant exchange rates) and were positively influenced by adjustments in gross/net sales. Sales in international operations increased by 10% in Danish kroner (+14% at constant exchange rates). Net profit increased by 1% in Danish kroner to DKK 102.4bn. The Board of Directors will propose a final dividend of DKK 7.95 per share for 2025 to the AGM, bringing the total dividend planned for 2025 to 11.70. Satisfied with the results, CEO Mike Doustdar, despite admitting that 2025 was 'a difficult year'. "In 2026, Novo Nordisk will face pricing challenges in an increasingly competitive market. However, we are very encouraged by the promising initial take-up at the US launch of the Wegovy pill and remain confident in our ability to drive volume growth in the coming years," the top manager said in a note.