Air traffic

O'Leary (Ryanair): 'If the war does not end, failures will come'

For the ceo of the low-cost airline, an extra $50 million has already been spent on increased fuel. Europe is not at risk of jet fuel until May, then we don't know'

by our correspondent Mara Monti

22 April 2026

5' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Key points

Some companies might go bankrupt
From June procurement risk
The problem of airport taxes and the Fiumicino and Ciampino case
"The good news is that as of 2028 there will be no more Trump."

5' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

DUBLIN - "The war has already cost us $50 million more in fuel in April alone. If it continues and the price stays at $150 a barrel, within a year this could rise to $600 million". Michael O'Leary ceo of the Ryanair group since the Strait of Hormuz has been closed due to the war in Iran, spends the day on the phone with oil companies to find out whether there will be enough fuel in the summer months for his 647 planes.

"Nobody knows what will happen. At the moment what seems clear is that if the war ends at the end of April or beginning of May, there will be no problems with fuel supply during the summer, but if it continues we don't know," said the ceo speaking to reporters.

Some companies may go bankrupt

The company currently sleeps soundly because 80% of the fuel was fixed before the conflict at a price of $67 per barrel with coverage until March 2027. A choice that proved to be strategic, but not enough. Because that 20% purchased on the open market, if in February, before the war, had a price of 74 dollars, in the following months its price more than doubled to 150 dollars.

Levels that are so unsustainable for operators that some may not make it. And he goes so far as to name names: 'If oil stays at these levels, two or three European airlines in October or November could go bankrupt like Wizz Air, which wants to sue me but won't have enough time to do so, and Air Baltic. A good thing for our business' because there will be fewer competitors.

Despite the winds of war, the low-cost airline continues to grow, starting with the traffic figures confirmed for 2026 with 216 million passengers and for 2027 between 222 and 223 million. "Business was exploding this year, everything was going great. Then Trump decides in mid-March to rip Iran apart and sends the world into a tailspin. You want to know what's going to happen? The answer is that we don't have a clue."

In this scenario dominated by uncertainty, the company tries to resist by avoiding the revision of financial guidance: 'I wouldn't know how to do it, I can't predict the future.

Our share price has fallen from EUR 32 to EUR 25 since Trump started bombing Iran, which means the market expects our profits to fall (analysts estimate EUR 2.2 billion for 2026, ed), but making predictions now is impossible because we have no visibility on fuel prices in June, let alone for the winter.

Le cicatrici di Hormuz

Since June there is a risk of supplies and cancellations

Ruining the low-cost airline's plans is not only the increase in the price of jet fuel, but above all its availability, because if the fuel from Hormuz does not arrive, everything is off. O'Leary spreads his arms wide: 'Right now, the oil companies say there will be no supply risks for May, but for June we are not sure. As long as this war in the Middle East drags on and Trump continues to handle it so poorly, surely fuel prices will remain higher. If the war ends in April or early May, then there is no risk of cancelled flights, but if the flight is cancelled because there is no fuel at the airport, there are not many solutions. People are waiting to see what happens, I recommend booking because it might be too late . 10%-20% of our fuel supply is at risk, but none of us know for sure. And in any case, even if the war ends tomorrow, it will take at least three or four months to return to normal, with the price of fuel possibly dropping below USD 100 per barrel by September. But this is only speculation'.

The one who is most at risk is the UK because it 'gets its fuel from Kuwait. Whereas for the other European countries, we do not expect shortages in May and probably also in June because they get their supplies from Norway, West Africa, the US and also Russia, but you cannot say that'.

A solution does not exist at the moment, except to ask the 'European Commission to reduce the Ets, the rest is just a waste of time. The EU commissioners are useless, now they are discussing hand luggage on planes. That's why I say, get a move on, abolish the Ets or at least reduce them. But in the Commission they are politicians and bureaucrats and they like to waste time'.

Il passaggio delle navi nello Stretto di Hormuz: il video timelapse

The problem of airport taxes and the Fiumicino and Ciampino case

In the Dubliner's view, it is not only war that creates damage: 'Airport taxes are worse because wars generally end quickly and airport taxes are stupid taxes. No government finds good reasons to cut a tax. And that is a problem for Italia'.

O'Leary cites the Roman airports of Fiumicino and Ciampino where airport taxes are set to rise by 14% and 50% respectively by 2028. He then goes on to review his workhorse, namely the abolition of the municipal surtax on boarding that weighs on the ticket price: where this tax has been abolished, such as in Calabria, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Abruzzo, Trapani, Rimini, Forlì and Parma, "traffic has risen by double figures. We could do more and invest up to 4 billion dollars in Italia if it were completely abolished'.

The company, first in Italy in terms of traffic with 69 million passengers in 2026, 68% more than pre-Covid, recalls that to date, 11 billion dollars have been invested to base 111 aircraft in 20 operational bases, serving 32 airports, over 800 routes and 55 thousand jobs including induced activities. He ends the roundup by reviewing Ita Airways and Lufthansa, an operation that according to O'Leary has reduced domestic routes to the detriment of Italian passengers.

"I predict that Lufthansa will continue to do a good job feeding the Frankfurt and Munich hubs from Italia, but they will not grow either domestic or international routes, creating further opportunities for Ryanair."

"The good news is that as of 2028, there will be no more Trump."

Amidst blown plans, war risks and the fuel crisis, the ceo had to postpone the finalisation of his contract expiring in 2028 at the helm of the airline: 'We are finalising, we have reached an agreement in principle with the board of directors to extend my contract until 2032.

I hope we can announce later and maybe get the assembly's approval in September for some kind of agreement on the extension of my contract. Between now and 2028 anything can happen, but the only good news is that from 2028 Trump will no longer be in the White House, hopefully there won't be someone who can do as much damage as he did.