OECD raises GDP estimate for Italia 2026 to +0.5%, limits 2027 to +0.6%
If, on the other hand, 'disruptions should continue until 2027', the OECD sees global growth cut to 2.1 per cent in 2026 and further reduced to +1.8 per cent in 2027.
The world economy 'entered 2026 in better shape than many had anticipated' and 'the global growth outlook looked set for a significant upward revision', but 'the conflict in the Middle East has become the main factor influencing the global economic outlook' and now 'the global economy is under pressure again'.
This was noted by the OECD in its June Economic Outlook, pointing out that 'the evolution of the conflict in the Middle East remains uncertain, but its economic consequences are likely to be felt for a long time to come, even after its eventual resolution'.
The Paris-based organisation, 'recognising this uncertainty', developed 'a scenario-based approach', providing forecasts based on 'two possible trajectories: a scenario of temporary disruption' of supply chains across the Strait of Hormuz, 'in which disruptions remain relatively brief, and a scenario of prolonged disruption, characterised by much larger and longer-lasting negative consequences'.
In the first case, 'assuming that energy prices start to decline gradually from mid-2026', the OECD expects world economic growth to slow from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.8% in 2026 (the March estimate was +2.9%), and then to pick up to 3.1% in 2027 (from +3%).
Annual consumer price inflation in the G20 countries is expected to increase to 4% in 2026 (estimate unchanged), compared to 3.4% in 2025, before declining to 3.1% in 2027 (March estimate was for 2.7%). If, on the other hand, 'disruptions should continue until 2027', the OECD sees global growth cut to 2.1% in 2026 and further reduced to +1.8% in 2027.
