OECD: raises Italia’s GDP forecast to +0.9 per cent in 2026, with inflation at 3 per cent
In 2027, growth of 0.6 per cent (unchanged), inflation rises to 2.6 per cent
(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - , 23 September - The OECD has revised its estimates for Italian GDP growth upwards for this year and has left those for next year unchanged. In its interim Economic Outlook (the full report will be published at a later date), the Paris-based organisation forecasts GDP growth of 0.9 per cent for Italy in 2026, following +0.5 per cent in 2025 (compared with the +0.5% forecast in the Economic Outlook published last June) and 0.6% in 2027. “Rises in energy prices have reflected both higher crude oil prices and wider margins, against a backdrop of growing bottlenecks in the refining sector. The rise in consumer fuel prices comes at a time when real wages in some G20 economies, such as Italy, Japan and South Africa, remain at or below pre-pandemic levels,” writes the OECD. The Paris-based organisation forecasts a rise in inflation in Italia between now and next year, a trend that began even before the conflict in the Middle East: looking at the figures, after 1.6 per cent in 2025, inflation in Italia is expected to rise to 3 per cent in 2026 (unchanged from June) and to 2.6 per cent in 2027 (compared with the previous forecast of 2.2 per cent). The ‘core’ inflation figure, however, has been revised downwards, to 1.9 per cent this year (from 2.3 per cent) and 2 per cent in 2027 (unchanged), following 1.9 per cent in 2025.
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