The OECD has raised its forecast for Italia’s GDP growth in 2026 to +0.5% and revised its 2027 forecast down to +0.6%
If, on the other hand, ‘the disruptions were to persist until 2027’, the OECD forecasts global growth falling to 2.1% in 2026 and declining further to 1.8% in 2027.
Key points
The global economy “entered 2026 in better shape than many had anticipated” and “the outlook for global growth appeared set for a significant upward revision”, but “the conflict in the Middle East has become the main factor influencing the global economic outlook” and now “the global economy is once again under pressure”.
The OECD notes this in its June Economic Outlook, emphasising that ‘the course of the conflict in the Middle East remains uncertain, but its economic consequences are likely to be felt for a long time to come, even after a possible resolution’.
The Paris-based organisation, ‘acknowledging this uncertainty’, has developed ‘a scenario-based approach’, providing forecasts based on ‘two possible trajectories: a scenario of temporary disruption’ to supply chains through the Strait of Hormuz, ‘in which the disruptions remain relatively short-lived, and a scenario of prolonged disruption, characterised by much wider-ranging and longer-lasting negative consequences’.
In the first scenario, ‘assuming that energy prices begin to fall gradually from mid-2026’, the OECD forecasts that global economic growth will slow from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.8% in 2026 (the March estimate was +2.9%), before rising to 3.1% in 2027 (from +3%).
Annual consumer price inflation in G20 countries is expected to rise to 4% in 2026 (estimate unchanged), compared with 3.4% in 2025, before falling to 3.1% in 2027 (the March estimate was 2.7%). If, however, ‘the disruptions were to persist until 2027’, the OECD forecasts global growth falling to 2.1% in 2026 and falling further to +1.8% in 2027.
