Oil, global stocks at lowest since 2016: risk of new price jump
Ubs analysis: despite the release of strategic reserves at the end of May, it will reach 7.6 billion barrels
The world oil stocks are rapidly approaching their lowest level in the last 10 years, with the risk of reaching a point where, especially for some areas or countries, it will no longer just be a question of high prices but of scarcity, which will destroy demand and damage the economy. While the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz where oil tanker transits take place with the dropper, a new alarm comes from Ubs.
The stocks
According to analysts, despite government measures such as the release of strategic reserves and a certain slowdown in demand in April, stockpiles will fall to their lowest level since 2016 by the end of May, at 7.6 billion barrels compared to the 8.2 billion recorded in February.
The effects on prices and availability
The effects in the coming weeks and months could be that of a new price rise and volatility in an already difficult situation. Since the start of the conflict in the Persian Gulf, Brent has risen 50% to over USD 100 per barrel while the Texas Wti is trading at USD 110.
But apart from the level of quotations, the risk is that of a shortage, as the distribution of stocks is not uniform and affects some areas and countries more than others. Other factors must also be considered on the market outlook: according to media reports, the Trump administration has let the sanctions waiver that allowed countries such as India to buy Russian oil by sea expire. Furthermore, Ukrainian drone attacks are putting a strain on Moscow's infrastructure.
Exxon's prediction
In recent days, Exxon's CEO Darren Woods has been adding to the dose, pointing out that 'the oil market has not yet felt the full impact of the loss of supply', but if commercial stocks eventually fall to levels where they can no longer serve as a source of supply, 'we will continue to see a rise in prices in the market'.
