Oil, on the Opec+ table the most intricate knot concerns the Emirates

On the table of Opec+, which will meet on Thursday 5, there is not only the plan to withdraw oil production cuts. Standing in the way of an agreement that the market already seems to take for granted could be the situation of the United Arab Emirates, a long-standing member of the organisation, which has already put a spoke in the wheels with its claims in the past, paralysing the work of a between 2020 and 2021 summit for weeks.

The Emirates - considered to be a pillar of the group due to its large production capacity - managed to obtain a significant increase in its share, which forms the basis on which the cuts can be calculated: from January they will have the right to gradually increase extraction by 300,000 barrels per day over the course of 2025. An exclusive privilege, which today clashes with other demands.

It was in January that Opec+ wanted to start reopening the taps. But the weakness of oil demand advised to wait longer. After two postponements (originally supposed to start in October) there could be a third one.

Complex negotiations - which seem to be at the origin of the postponement even of the date of the summit, itself postponed 1 to 5 December - led to a preliminary agreement to postpone it for another three months, i.e. until April. All agreed, according to Bloomberg sources. And the market seems to be reassured: the price of the barrel on Tuesday 3 rebounded by more than 2%, with Brent around 73.50 dollars towards the end of the session.

Diplomatic efforts are reported to have helped. And in particular the talks held in recent days by the Saudis with the delegates of Russia, Iraq and Kazakhstan: the only three countries publicly chastised for their lack of discipline in production cuts, who were ordered to make up for the shortcomings with a precise timetable.