Olive oil, prices holding up and Italian harvest on the rise

The European olive oil sector is experiencing a return to an average production trend after a two-year period of reduced supply that caused extra virgin olive oil prices to soar to over 10 euros per litre. And now the estimates of a return to the average have prompted many in the sector to speak of a 'return to normality'. A normality about which we must, however, be clear. The two-year period of price increases was triggered by two campaigns in which Spain, the world leader, was penalised by adverse weather events (first drought and then too much heat) that caused it to produce well below its potential, under a million tonnes.

This summer, however, Madrid began to speak of a return to standards, with production initially estimated at over 1.6 million tonnes. According to Areté, Italy's leading company in the monitoring and analysis of agrifood raw material quotations, in the first half of 2025 the price of EU extra virgin olive oil was expected to fall by 45%. A fall that immediately prompted more than one agricultural organisation to denounce the risk of strong price speculation. Then - fortunately, we might add - the summer heat led to a downsizing of the estimates in Spain.

The production trends for the 2025-26 marketing year were recalled a few days ago in Rome at a meeting organised by Confagricoltura by Ismea researcher Tiziana Sarnari: "The data from the Coi (International Olive Oil Council) - she explained - see Spain credited with a production of 1.3 million tonnes (-3% compared to last year), Italy with 300 thousand (+21%). Tunisia, for which production was initially forecast to exceed 400 thousand tonnes, will not go beyond 270 thousand tonnes, thus taking Italy back to second place among the world's main producers. Turkey (290 thousand), Greece (245 thousand) and Portugal (165 thousand) close the ranking".

a scenario," commented the president of Confagricoltura, Massimiliano Giansanti, "in which Europe and Spain are becoming less important at a global level, while North African countries, which now account for more than a third of world production, are growing. In these conditions of downward adjustments to production estimates, price lists have regained momentum. "The quotations of Italian products," added Areté, "remain at record levels (+5% over last year) while EU extra virgin olive oil recorded a 14% rebound in October, driven by increases in the markets of origin in Spain (+17%) and Greece (+15%).

For all of them, the bogeyman to be avoided is sales below cost, a phenomenon that over the years has damaged extra virgin olive oil, devaluing it and making it similar to a commodity. Because of this perverse spiral," commented Anna Cane, president of the Olive Oil Group of Assitol (the association of Italian olive oil companies), "we are witnessing the 'hunt' for the lowest price, which has now become the only criterion for choosing extra virgin olive oil. A competition that does wrong to extra virgin olive oil, making it perceived as a product of little value.