Market Day

Apple returns number 1 in capitalisation. EU stock exchanges rebound as US inflation falls, Milan +1.4%

US prices stagnate in May against expectations of a modest rise, slowdown compared to April. Apple overtakes Microsoft and becomes again the most capitalised company in the world, worth over 3200 billion dollars

by Paolo Paronetto and Stefania Blasioli

La Borsa, gli indici del 12 giugno 2024

4' min read

4' min read

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Better-than-expected U.S. inflation data for May returned to boost the European stock markets, which bounced back after two negative sessions following the outcome of the EU elections. Last month, the US consumer price index slowed to +3.3% year-on-year, against expectations for a confirmation at +3.4%. This figure gives margins of manoeuvre to the Fed, which in the evening will announce the outcome of the two-day summit and expectations for the coming months. Based on Cme FedWatch Tool calculations, the market is discouraged that interest rates will remain at their current levels over the summer and is beginning to believe more strongly in a 25 basis point cut in September: 61.3% is considered likely.

The inflation figure "puts the Fed back in a position to move towards aprecautionary rate cut later in the year, so that it can stave off the prospect of a recession," commented theJanus Henderson experts, while warning that "today's trend is in favour of a precautionary cut rather than a shift in Fed policy towards an accommodative approach. The Ftse Mib of Piazza Affari thus closed 1.43% higher, regaining 34,000 points, lost on Tuesday for the first time since 6 May. In the rest of Europe, Frankfurt gained 1.49%, Paris 0.97%, London 0.83% and Amsterdam 1.14%.

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In the evening, the Federal Reserve meeting confirmed interest rates at 5.25%-5.50%. The dot plot, i.e. the chart of bankers' rate forecasts, anticipates only one Fed Funds cut in 2024, but the new inflation figure for May could lead the central bank to a softer stance at future meetings.

Wall Street closes mixed

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Wall Street closed mixed. The Dow Jones dropped 0.09% to 38,712.47 points, the Nasdaq gained 1.53% to 17,608.44 points and the S&P 500 rose 0.85% to 5,420.96 points. This followed the stable May consumer price figure - compared to the month before - and the slower annual figure. In May, consumer prices were unchanged from the previous month, after +0.3% in April, against expectations for a 0.1% rise. The annual figure slowed from 3.4 % to 3.3 %, against estimates for a confirmation of 3.4 %. The 'core' figure, i.e. excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.2%, thelowest increase in seven months, against expectations for 0.3%. Compared to a year earlier, the core figure rose 3.4% - against expectations of 3.5% and after 3.6% in the previous month - the smallest increase since April 2021. Energy prices rose by 3.7% year-on-year, food prices by 2.1%.

Apple overtakes Microsoft, returns world's most capitalised company

Apple surpasses Microsoft Corp and is once again the world's most capitalised company. At the moment, Apple is worth $3.256 billion, thanks to the day's rise, which follows the eve's rise of more than 7% in the wake of artificial intelligence news. Microsoft is now worth $3,249 billion with today's rise. Apple had been trailing Microsoft since 24 January, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Microsoft spent 96 sessions holding the top of the largest-capitalisation company ranking.

Banks in the light at Piazza Affari. Weak Leonardo and Saipem

Among the main Milanese stocks, purchases rewarded StMicroelectronics (+3.28%) in an effervescent tech sector driven by Apple, which in Wall Street returned to sit on the throne of the world's largest capitalisation company, overtaking Microsoft. Banks recovered ground: UniCredit, in particular, rose 2.26% after the European Commission gave the green light to the acquisition of Alpha Bank Romania. On the other hand, Leonardo (-1.93%) bucked the trend following the halt to negotiations with Knds on collaboration for the supply of Leopard 2 tanks to the Italian Army. Also doing well were Ferrari (+3%), A2a (+2.86%), Banca Mediolanum (+2.75%), Inwit (+2.54%), Unipol (+2.41%) and Hera (+2.29%). Tim, on the other hand, performed badly, leaving 2.11% on the ground. Just below par, Eni (-0.33%), which placed 10% of Saipem's capital on the market: the latter took advantage of speculation on a possible greater future contendibility by posting a progress of 1.79%. Outside the main basket Italmobiliare lost 1.71% (to EUR 28.75) after the Pesenti's Cemital placed on the market a stake equal to 1.3% of the capital at EUR 27.5 per share. Eems (+11.12%) and Bestbe Holding (+14.29%) rallied, while Eph (-17.5%) and Risanamento (-6.97%) suffered.

Spread closes at 139 points, 10-year yield plummets to 3.92% after US inflation

The BTp-Bund spread closed sharply lower after the sharp downward correction in euro yields following the release of the US inflation figure. At the end of the session, the spread between the Italian ten-year BTp (Isin IT0005560948) and the German ten-year bund stood at 139 basis points, down from 144 points at the close on the eve of the session. The yield on the benchmark ten-year BTp fell much more vigorously, ending trading at 3.92%, from 4.06% at Tuesday's closing. It should be noted that Italy's ten-year BTp outperformed all other government bonds from peripheral eurozone countries, French bonds in the lead.

Dollar down after US inflation, euro back up to 1.08

The dollar fell back after US inflation, with the euro taking advantage of this to recover the 1.08 mark against the greenback. Inflation in May was stable on a monthly basis, below market expectations. While the Fed's target appears far off, the figure marks a point in favour of interest rate cuts in the coming months. The yen weakened, despite the manufacturing prices grew well above expectations (the most in 18 months) fuelling expectations of possible inflationary pressures and a further rate hike by the BoJ, note analysts at Mps.

Bought on crude oil, Brent crude points to $83

Purchases on oil, with Brent (targeting $83) and Wti prices rising. Opec left its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2024 unchanged from estimates released last month. The IEA report, for its part, identifies peak demand in 2030, with the surplus touching 8 mln barrels per day in the decade. Gas rises 2.5 per cent to EUR 35.1 per megawatt-hour on the Ttf platform in Amsterdam.

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