Orcel: ‘Risiko? As spectators, the conditions aren’t right for us to take action in Italia at the moment’

Ready to look at opportunities in Italia under the ‘right conditions’. But at least ‘for the time being’, there is no room for manoeuvre. UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel is keeping the door open to M&A in Italia too, but is playing it safe regarding any potential short-term moves in the Italian banking sector. Speaking at the Mediobanca CEO Conference, the CEO was clear. “We would make a move in Italia if we saw a good opportunity, but at the moment we don’t see one,” says Orcel. The executive adds that, in the Italian context, which is currently being swept by a new wave of turmoil involving MPS, UniCredit is “merely an observer”, noting with a touch of irony that the group is “enjoying itself quite a bit simply being an observer, for the first time, in the Italian M&A scene”, which he described as “very interesting”.

The meeting with investors also provided an opportunity to take stock of the strategic value of the Commerzbank deal – the public offer for which has entered its final phase – describing it as ‘historic’ because, in his view, it represents ‘one of the best transactions that can be carried out in Europe’. According to Orcel, in light of the results of the takeover bid, which has led the bank to hold 42.5 per cent of the German group’s share capital, “it is now more likely that we will gain control of Commerzbank, but we will know for sure once the bid closes”. This scenario of gaining control was, initially “unlikely”, whereas now “it is more likely that we will achieve it, but we will only know for sure at the end, and I do not wish to speculate”.

For the banker, the merger between Commerzbank and HVB, UniCredit’s German subsidiary, would bring together ‘two highly complementary brands’ in Germany, a market that remains ‘highly fragmented’.

Orcel also dismisses concerns about a possible negative impact on competition. Together, he explained, the two banks would have a market share of 8.5 per cent in Germany and a presence in the medium-sized business segment estimated at between 13 and 14 per cent. “How would that limit choice?” remarked the CEO, arguing that the merger would, above all, bring greater critical mass.

Finally, UniCredit’s chief executive highlighted the geographical complementarity between HVB and Commerzbank: the former is particularly strong in southern Germany, whilst Commerzbank has a stronger foothold in the central region, with both also operating in the north of the country.