Abivax runs in Paris, rumours of interest from Ely Lilly appeal to the market

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Abivax is taking off on the Paris Stock Exchange, boosted by rumours that US pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly is interested in acquiring the French biotech company. Against this backdrop, Kepler Chevreux confirmed its buy recommendation, almost doubling its price target. Abivax's share price is up 19% at around EUR 118 per share, after having risen as high as EUR 130, a level that stimulated sell-offs. According to the French daily La Lettre, Eli Lilly is reportedly ready to acquire Abivax for EUR 15 billion, almost double the company's market capitalisation of EUR 7.8 billion.

The US group has not yet made a formal offer, but 'before positioning itself, it is awaiting a signal from the French government as to whether the acquisition would be subject to French foreign investment control procedures'. For Abivax, this is in fact a 'restart', traders note, after a gain of over 500% on 23 July, following the publication of positive results from a clinical trial of its lead drug, obefazimod, for the treatment of ulcerative colitis.

Eli Lilly would not be the only pharmaceutical group interested in Abivax, which is headed by Marc de Garidel from April 2023. Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca are also reportedly eyeing the French company, which ended 2025 with a 1,600% gain on the stock market, particularly after its July exploit. Global sales of ulcerative colitis therapies are estimated at $21.2 billion in 2032 versus $9.2 billion in 2025. Abivax is targeting the start of commercialisation of its new molecule in 2027. In this context, the French company is considered an excellent prey for a takeover bid.

"Following the publication of positive Phase III data on ulcerative colitis, Abivax has become one of M&A's most attractive targets" in the inflammatory bowel disease sector, write analysts at Kepler Cheuvreux in today's note to clients. The paper points out that a potential takeover could be priced between EUR 150 and EUR 250 per share, driven by the scarcity of late-stage assets in the sector and the pressure to renew portfolios across major pharmaceutical groups. Kepler confirmed a 'buy' rating on Abivax stock, raising its price target from EUR 70 to EUR 130. Some additional indications on the dossier might emerge from the important conference series dedicated to 'Big Pharma', organised by Jp Morgan in San Francisco from 12 to 15 January.