Pasta, production growth and the risks of climate change

In the same period, EU countries exported almost 2.7 million tonnes of pasta, of which more than half, or 57 %, went to other EU countries.

And in first place, in the ranking of exporters, is Italy with 2.0 million tonnes exported in 2023, or 76% of the total. Spain, the second largest exporter, exported around 130,000 tonnes, or 5 % of the total.

As far as importers are concerned, in first place is Germany with 440,773 tonnes of pasta with a share of 28 % of the total imports of the EU Member States, and France with 371,966 tonnes of imported pasta, accounting for 24 % of imports.

Then there are the non-EU destinations. In 2023, 307,481 tonnes or 26% of non-EU exports went to the UK and 243,646 tonnes or 21% to the US.

Pasta production in Spain has experienced sustained growth in recent years, driven by increased domestic consumption and growing international demand. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the sector experienced a remarkable recovery due to changing consumption habits, with an increased focus on non-perishable and easy-to-prepare foods.

In fact, in 2023, Spain was the second largest pulp producer in the European Union (EU) with a total of 485,131 tonnes, second only to Italy, which produced 4.2 million tonnes, according to data published by Eurostat.

However, climate change poses potential risks for this sector. Since pasta production is directly dependent on the availability of wheat and other cereals, droughts and prolonged heat waves in Spain and other supplier countries could affect both the quality and price of raw materials. Water management is another front. A crucial resource for agricultural production, complicated by ever decreasing availability. These concerns have led companies in the sector to explore alternatives such as supply diversification and the use of crops more resistant to extreme weather conditions to ensure the long-term sustainability of production.

The drought is having a profound impact on cereal fields for pasta production in Spain. The lack of rainfall and prolonged water stress have drastically reduced harvests of durum wheat, the main cereal used in this industry. For example, in the last season, Grupo Gallo reported that the wheat harvested was less than half the usual amount, from 20,000 tonnes to less than 9,000 tonnes.

According to the latest reports of the Ministry for Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge (MITECO), in 2022 between 35% and 45% of the land was affected, while in 2023 this figure dropped to 15%-25%. In the first half of 2024 it dropped further to around 15% of the country. But despite this positive trend, there are still large areas of cultivation where drought remains a problem.

According to the Survey of Crop Areas and Yields (ESYRCE), in 2023, 77.8% of the cultivated area in Spain will belong to irrigated crops. In fact, cereals such as soft wheat account for 1,792,228.99 hectares and durum wheat for 328,997.04 hectares. While in 2013, 10 years ago, the percentage of hectares cultivated on dry land was 79.15%. As for wheat cultivation, soft wheat accounts for 1,761,730.73 hectares and durum wheat 445,589.23 hectares.

Ebro Foods, the largest Spanish food group whose shareholders include the national government, sells pasta produced in Italy. In particular, it has been doing so since April 2018, when it acquired 70% of Bertagni, an Italian company known for having the oldest stuffed pasta brand in the transalpine country. Its origins date back to 1882, when Luigi Bertagni and his brothers devised a way to package and preserve the fresh tortellini they produced.

*Davide Madeddu (Il Sole 24 Ore, Italy), Ana Somavilla and Javier Melguizo (El Confidencial, Spain)