Tension in the Middle East

Patuelli: 'If companies go into crisis then families and banks follow'

Abi president: 'Rates? Upward signals from the markets, we will see the central banks'

by L.Ser.

Il presidente dell’Abi Antonio Patuelli IMAGOECONOMICA

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

"My first concern is for businesses. If businesses go down, families and banks follow. This mechanism is inseparable. So we need to think about new investments for business development. What was done in the pandemic years was a qualitative leap by the European Union. National responses are not enough, there is not the choral solidity of perspectives, as well as the resources'. On Monday, 13 April, the president of Abi, Antonio Patuelli, spoke in an interview with journalist Cesare Peruzzi at the Florence headquarters of Confindustria Toscana Centro e Costa.

The president of the Italian banking association focused on the risks for the national economy if the tense situation in the Middle East continues.

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"Going on for a prolonged period, as I strongly fear, with such devastating wars, the risks grow for companies, grow for households, and consequently grow for banks, which are inextricably linked to riskiness.

The banker agreed that the national credit institutions are sound, but the picture is not homogeneous.

"There are some excellent figures and there are also some that have wobbled a bit over the past year," he noted, pointing to the fact that the most fragile players could suffer in the long term. And, as has been widely experienced in the past, when a crisis in the banking sector occurs, the knock-on effect in terms of confidence is quickly triggered. In the meantime, there is anticipation about the future moves of central banks.

"Market rates change every day. I compare the rates of 27 February, the day before the start of the new big Middle East war, with those of a month and a half later. Government bond rates have sprouted, interbank rates have sprouted, so the sprout has already been there. It is clear that it is a sprouting and that it is a coming and going, because there are days when they rise, days when they fall, based on evolutionary hopes. Central banks normally follow and do not precede market trends, so we have strong questions: let's hope they are not drastic'. In the context of growing uncertainty, an action plan to support the economy's growth becomes even more urgent.

"We need to make a new initiative similar to the NRP by giving new impetus and new confidence to Europe, which is outside war conflicts and therefore not only has different perspectives in terms of international relations, but can be much stronger and more attractive.

According to the banker, 'the European Union at the time of the pandemic crisis had a big push. And Italia benefited a lot from this big push: so Europe today has to be aware that, especially in the Mediterranean areas, there is a higher level of risks, so we should not wait for the risks to increase'.

In general, according to Patuelli, 'there are uncertainties, questions, and we have to get used to a world that has many more questions than we had in past years. It is a methodological and cultural approach to which we have to approach, not thinking that it is an exception, but thinking instead that in a society that is undergoing a very strong transformation there may structurally be many more questions than we are used to'.

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