Pensions and youth, why a 22-year-old's cheque arrives after 50 years

Even 41 years of waiting for those who are now 30 years old and have been working for a couple of years. Which, in the wake of the progressive adjustment to life expectancy, could become almost 50, or 49 years to be precise, for 22 year olds who are newly 'employed', at least according to OECD estimates. It is a pension that, if not exactly unattainable, is at least very difficult for young people to grasp, the one outlined by the intersection of the forecasts of many organisations, including international ones, and of simulators of various kinds. Such as that of the Inps, called 'Pensami', which, however, as the president of the institute, Gabriele Fava, has repeatedly said, is destined to be replaced by a new simulator of the institution, in 'app' format, which 'thanks to technology allows every citizen to determine their own pension in a simple and immediate way'. The 'millennials-pension' issue remains, in any case, almost unresolved. Last year the government and trade unions considered the hypothesis of creating a guarantee pension for young people, which did not translate into operational measures. The same executive now seems intent, resources permitting, on strengthening the 'pension coverage' of the under-35s by making greater use of supplementary pensions.

For those who start working now in Italy at around the age of 22, access to a pension at the age of 71 is expected as life expectancy increases: this is stated by the OECD in its report 'Pensions at a glance' at the end of 2023. "For those entering the labour market now," the dossier reads, "the normal retirement age would reach 70 in the Netherlands and Sweden, 71 in Estonia and Italy and even 74 in Denmark. Twenty-two year olds entering the labour market today will therefore have to wait another 49 years to access retirement, taking into account the adjustment to life expectancy: five years more than the OECD average (66 years).

From the Inps 'Pensami' simulator, just updated on the basis of the adjustments to the increases to life expectancy of pension requirements due to the median Istat demographic scenario (base 2022) but which does not yet take into account the innovations of the last budget law on flexible early retirement (e.g, Quota 103), we derive that those who are 30 years old today, and started working at the beginning of 2022, will be able to retire, if they have at least 20 years of contributions, in December 2063 with 69 years and 10 months of age. In other words, the approach to the pension cheque will take place at almost 70 years of age.

Using the same simulator it emerges that a worker in his thirties who has been 'employed' for a short time will be able to retire at 66 years and 8 months if he has paid 20 years of contributions and accrued an allowance above a certain threshold (three times the monthly amount of the social allowance in 2024, i.e. 1,603.23 euros), otherwise, if he is unable to reach 20 years of contributions, he will have to wait until he reaches the age of 74. A man born in January 1980 who works in the private sector and started to pay in 2005 (thus, entirely 'contributory') will instead be able to access the old age pension at 68 years and 9 months in November 2048, but will be able to anticipate it at 65 years and 7 months if he has accrued an allowance above a given threshold (three times the social allowance in 2024): if, however, he is unable to reach 20 years of contributions, retirement will have to be postponed until he is 73 years and 2 months old.

"Pensami' - which, as has been said, is not yet up to date with most of the pension measures introduced by the latest economic manoeuvre - is to be replaced by a new Inps simulator in 'app' format. This was confirmed by the president of the institute himself, Gabriele Fava: 'we are working on a new simulator that, thanks to technology, will enable every citizen to determine his or her pension in a simple and immediate way. A qualitative-quantitative tool, accessible from the web or a smartphone. A tool that will make it possible to simulate active and contributory life paths, even different from the current one, integrated with opportunities such as voluntary contribution or degree redemption'.