Pensions, why the system is in balance but advances must be reduced

The number of Italian pensioners has risen again: by 2024 there are 16,305,880 (+75,723 compared to 2023). The increase is mainly due to the multiple exit routes in derogation of the Fornero reform requirements, but also to the growth of fully or partially assisted pensioners, who reach 7.17 million (+43,170 over 2023) and represent 43.99% of the total number of pensioners.

These are the numbers contained in the latest report by the Itinerari Previdenziali research and study centre, the thirteenth, presented in the Sala Regina in Montecitorio - in the presence of Chamber of Deputies President Lorenzo Fontana, Deputy Prime Minister Antonio Tajani and State Accountant General Daria Perrotta-, which shows a growth in pension expenditure in 2024, when it reached 286.14 billion (+18.7 billion compared to 2023), due to both the increase in the number of pensioners and the revaluation of pensions. But thanks to the increase in the number of employed persons, which in 2024 steadily surpassed the peak of 24 million, and to the increase in wages, contribution receipts also increased, amounting to 260.59 billion. The social security balance remains negative, but improves from the -30.72 billion deficit in 2023 to the -25.55 billion deficit in the latest survey. In light of these numbers, the president of Itinerari previdenziali, Alberto Brambilla, explained that the system 'is, all things considered, in equilibrium', but 'future stability will depend on the ability to cope with the greatest demographic transition of all time, keeping both the retirement age and the excessive mixing of social security and assistance under control'.

Against this backdrop, the active/pensioner ratio improved, reaching 1.4758, the best figure recorded in the publication's historical series, although still below the 1.5 indicated in previous editions as the 'safety threshold'. In order to reach this threshold, according to the report, it is necessary to "reduce too many advances, increase employment especially of young people and women, and adapt contracts to age by introducing a work life cycle (directing the worker towards age-related tasks)".

The overall deficit is weighed down by the more than 46 billion lire of the civil servants' management, the artisans' management (3.8 billion lire) and the direct cultivators' management (almost 2 billion lire), while the Flpd management (employees' pension fund with a positive balance of 11,58 billion) the traders (positive balance of 590 million), the separate management of parasubordinate workers (with a positive balance of 9.91 billion, due to the recent establishment in 1996) and the privatised funds for the self-employed (positive balance of 4.43 billion).

The report shows that for every 3.58 Italian residents at least one is a pensioner, a high figure if we take into account that the peak of our ageing population will be reached in 2045. In addition, each pensioner receives an average of 1.411 benefits: in fact, one benefit is paid for every 2.561 inhabitants, about 'one per family', a stable value with respect to the last surveys, which is destined to rise to one benefit for every 2.1 inhabitants if other benefits such as the Inclusion Allowance and welfare treatments provided by local authorities are also taken into account.