Retirement today takes 81.5 per cent, in 2060 64.8 per cent
Focus Censis/Confcooperative. Demographic bomb: -7.7 million workers by 2050
Key points
"A cut of 17 percentage points on the retirement income compared to the last pay packet. This is the prospect awaiting those entering the labour market today compared to those retiring now. A real mortgage on the future that is added to wages that are among the lowest in Europe, an increasing prevalence of in-work poverty, and a sharp reduction in the number of workers, as many as 7.7 million fewer, by 2050. This is the result of cross dynamics of the last 30 years'. This is how Maurizio Gardini, president of Confcooperative summarises with concern the data emerging from the Censis/Confcooperative Focus 'Pensions, a mortgage on the future?
The generation gap
The numbers speak for themselves: someone who retired at the age of 67, after a 38-year continuous career in the private sector that began in 1982, can count on a net replacement rate of 81.5%. Your son or daughter, who is 33 years old today and entered the labour market in 2022, again with a continuous career of 38 years, will have a replacement rate of 64.8% when he or she retires in 2060, also at the age of 67.
The dramatic difference: 16.7% less economic security. With the same number of years worked and contribution continuity, the younger generation will experience a significantly lower pension benefit, with the distance between final salary and first pension almost doubling: from 18.5% to 35.2% compared to today's pensioners.
Italy third last in Europe in terms of wage share in GDP
Italia ranks 25th in Europe for the incidence of wages on GDP: just 28.9%, against 44.9% in Germany, 38% in France and 37.1% in Spain. A gap that has lasted 30 years and has crystallised into a persistent downward balance over time. The demographic outlook worsens the picture. Between 2025 and 2050, the population of working age (15-64) will shrink by 7.7 million, a contraction of 20.5%. A dynamic that, in the presence of already high levels of poverty and a significant share of employed people in conditions of economic vulnerability, will make the country's social fragilities even more persistent.
Highest pension expenditure in Europe
Paradoxically, despite the diminishing prospects for the younger generations, Italia has the highest level of pension expenditure in relation to GDP among European countries: 15.5% in 2023, against an EU average of 12.3%. A figure that reflects the country's demographic ageing - almost half the population is over 50 - and the pension policies of recent decades.
