GDP per capita, Italy catches up with France Closing the gap with Berlin

In the global panorama shaken by the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and by the winds of a neo-protectionism that even before the concrete application of duties is splitting the consolidated routes of globalisation, the Eurozone's economic prospects outlined on Monday by the EU Commission's spring forecasts are not exciting. And even less so are those attributed to Italy, which with its +0.7% growth for this year and the +0.9% forecast for 2026 (official government estimates speak instead of +0.6% and +0.8%) would travel respectively two and five decimals below the average pace kept by the countries of the single currency.

But alongside the macro forecasts, which are difficult to carve into the marble when they have to venture into scenarios shot through with bursts of political announcements that are not always rational, it is the granular data processed by the Brussels technicians that offer the most interesting insights. Which, for those who are not too keen to venture into the dense jungle of data and tables, can be summarised as follows: Italy's post-pandemic recovery has achieved important results, especially when one looks at the per capita GDP at purchasing power parity, which measures the economy's performance net of the blows dealt by demographics and inflation in different ways from state to state. In this area, for example, Italy has now evened the score with France, erasing a gap in per capita GDP that was 10.1% in 2020 and 8.8% in 2015; it has almost halved the 'spread' with Germany, which has gone from 24.3% to 13.9% in five years; and it has mended relations with the Eurozone average, from which it is separated by 5.9% instead of the 10.7% in 2020 and the 9.4% recorded in 2015 (all obviously measured on the current borders of the single currency). These figures are not trivial, even if they are the result of a comparison with an area that, starting with Germany, certainly does not stand out for its lively growth.

A strong push has come from the increase in employment, which has set records in the last two years but, the data suggest, is limping along in the specific weight summarised by the amount of output per person employed. And, the last but crucial chapter of the summary, the road that should be taken to recover the damage generated by the long pre-pandemic stagnation is still a long one; because the economic weight (and therefore the relative well-being) achieved by Italy 25, 20 or just 15 years ago is still a long way off.

The numbers, then. The most encouraging ones, it was said, come from calculations on GDP per inhabitant. Which have a merit, because they sterilise the impacts of a demographic dynamic that is even more icy than in the rest of the area. But they also have a flaw: since the public debt, on which Italy is by far the record-holder among the continent's large countries and already sees the lead in the overall ranking with Greece soon to be overtaken, is sustained by the revenue generated by the overall product, regardless of how many people are involved.

In the count based on purchasing power parity standards, Italy's GDP has not only recovered its pre-Covid European positioning, but has also surpassed by a whisker the conditions of 2015, when it was in line with the Eurozone average now exceeded by 1.1%. In addition to regaining French levels and almost halving the gap with Germany, this indicator plays a complicated race with Spain, which in recent years is among the queens of European growth: in 2025 each Italian is 'owner' of a domestic product 6.2% higher than that of each Spaniard, ten years ago the distance was marginally smaller (+5.9%) but in 2020, the year of the collapse of the economy of both countries, it was 13.1%.