Perceived inflation nears 10%: one in two Italians has reduced consumption

Inflation perceived by Italians is 9.9 per cent, a figure that is almost eight percentage points higher than the real inflation rate, which reached 2 per cent year-on-year in April (Nic index, source: Istat). One Italian in two has reduced their consumption in the last six months to cope with the price increase. Moreover, 61% believe that their salaries or pensions are inadequate to cope with the cost of living and two out of three people think that, due to duties and the trade war that may ensue, prices will rise further in the coming months. These are the results of a survey conducted by Noto Sondaggi for Il Sole 24 Ore del Lunedì between 22 and 28 April.

Perceived inflation always exceeds actual inflation, but the gap between the two is now 7.9 percentage points. In the similar survey published by Il Sole 24 Ore on Monday in October 2023, this gap was almost six points, but the real inflation rate was much higher, at 5.3 per cent. 'The gap between perceived and real inflation,' explains Maurizio Del Conte, professor of labour law at Milan's Bocconi University, 'is felt more in times of high inflation, especially when there are inflationary flare-ups. The point is that we are now in our third full year of price increases, and it is the impact of price rises over the longer term that dictates perception: cumulative inflation - measured by Istat with the general consumer price index - has reached 17% over 2019.

'It is interesting to understand,' Del Conte adds, 'why we are seeing this increase in perceived inflation right now. When it comes to perception, there is never a precise scientific explanation, but it is clear that a general feeling of uncertainty such as the current one leads one to feel the inflationary pressure more. On the other hand, the concern that a new inflationary flare-up may reignite is far from unfounded'.

The goods for which Italians feel the heaviest increases are those related to housing: water, electricity and fuel. For this item, the perceived inflation rate rises to 16.4 per cent, while the real one stops at 5 per cent. Energy is also the chapter that - excluding foodstuffs - has the greatest impact on respondents' monthly expenses, along with fuel and health goods and services. For this reason, the Bill Decree (19/2025), converted into law in April, provided resources amounting to three billion, more than half of which was earmarked for the one-off bonus of 200 euro for families with Isee up to 25,000 euro.

The real price increase for foodstuffs is 3.2 per cent, but the perceived price increase is 13.1 per cent. The gap between the two values is also wide for other product categories, such as clothing and footwear (0.8% versus 9.7%), or in accommodation services (12.3% versus 3.8%) or personal goods and services (+10.4% versus 2.6%).