Photovoltaics, investments are moving from the South to the North: here's why

The regulations that have tightened the screws on the possibility of installing large-scale ground-mounted photovoltaic and agri-voltaic plants were approved a few weeks ago. The criteria for determining which areas of the country, with a focus on agricultural land, can accommodate the plants were set out in the Agriculture Decree (which blocked new ground-mounted photovoltaic plants in agricultural areas) and then declined, with further tightening, in the Eligible Areas Decree. The combination of the two measures has increased uncertainty, leaving wide discretionary margins to the regions. It is now up to them, within six months, to pass regional laws establishing what can be installed and where.

And it is precisely here, in the different orientations that the 20 regions have already partly highlighted, that we can read the signs of what may happen in the future. And the first indications to emerge show that the local authorities in northern Italy seem to be oriented towards adopting the new rules in a more flexible manner, balancing the need to protect the landscape with the development of renewables, compared to what the regions of central and southern Italy do not seem willing to do, starting with Sardinia, which has launched an 18-month moratorium on authorisations for renewable energy plants that the government is preparing to challenge (barring Sardinia's second thoughts) before the Constitutional Court. According to the major law firms that follow the renewables sector, this attitude of the regions will lead investors to shift their investments from the South to the North of the country, as Carlo Montella, co-founder of the Green Horse law firm, explained. The occasion was the event 'Renewables, how to get out of the labyrinth' organised in Milan by Elettricità Futura. To give an idea of the imbalance between North and South, just take the data published by Terna on grid connection requests. It should be borne in mind that these are requests made to reserve a space for connection, so generally about half are successful. In any case, in June 2024 alone, applications for 150 gigawatts were made for photovoltaic and similar plants: of these, 37 gigawatts in Puglia, 42 gigawatts in Sicily, 23 gigawatts in Sardinia, 11 gigawatts in Basilicata, and 8 in Lazio. Against these numbers in the North is Friuli Venezia Giulia with 1.18 gigawatts, 2.51 gigawatts in Lombardy, 3.08 in Piedmont and 5.32 in Emilia Romagna.

The numbers of connection requests clash, however, with the installed capacity and its growth rate, data collected in a recent study by Ambrosetti Thea. The leading region in this respect is Lombardy, with 10.5 gigawatts of installed capacity and an increase of 2.5 gigawatts in the last decade. It is followed by Piedmont, with 5.7 gigawatts, and then Veneto, Trentino Alto Adige and Emilia Romagna with 4.7 gigawatts. In the south, Puglia, the third region for growth in renewables in the last decade, stands out with 6.7 gigawatts; Sicily has 4.5 gigawatts. In the forecasts of the Eligible Areas decree, the regions destined to host larger quantities of new plants are Sicily (10.5 gigawatts), Lombardy (8.6), Apulia (7.4), Emilia Romagna (6.3), and Sardinia (6.3).

Faced with these armies of dark panels advancing - especially in terms of connection applications - one can understand the concerns of the regions and why the southern ones are the most rigid. The crucial aspect of the matter, however, is that in reality local authorities cannot block plants for which authorisation procedures have already been started. This is expressly clarified in the Dl Agricoltura (decree on agriculture) and represents the protection of the legitimate expectations of entrepreneurs who have started investments by relying on the rules that were passed in 2021. The procedures already in place concern photovoltaic plants and the like amounting to around 90 gigawatts and are therefore not insignificant. The concern of the sector's operators is that the regions may take advantage of the lax dictates of the interministerial decree on Eligible Areas and the new constraints it introduces - such as the 7-kilometre buffer zone for every protected property in the territory - to try to reset the authorisation process for plants that had already notified the paperwork.

The lawyers who participated in the event organised by Elettricità Futura explained that in various northern regions there is no such risk. Cristina Martorana, a partner at Legance, recounted how Lombardy had just in the last few days cancelled the resolution with which the Region had gone ahead to regulate the development of panels in the area while awaiting national rules. It had gone so far as to establish that in order to apply for authorisation it was necessary to prove that you were a farmer; despite the various stakes, the Lombardy authority had always expressly clarified that authorisation applications initiated under the previous rules would go ahead. The same orientation emerged in Piedmont. And also in Friuli Venezia Giulia, where a law has already been made that leaves room for the various types of agri-voltaic systems (while the Dl Agricoltura only allows agri-voltaic systems two metres above ground) while being more restrictive with photovoltaics. Emilia Romagna had approved a resolution that was implemented. Here, too, agri-voltaics are favoured, but it is foreseen that areas that have not been cultivated for three years can also become suitable for photovoltaics again. A more avant-garde provision than the Dl Agricoltura, with which compatibility will have to be assessed.