A bumper earnings season on the Milan Stock Exchange: 65 per cent of companies beat market expectations

The corporate results on the Milan Stock Exchange have passed with flying colours – indeed, with distinction. The quarterly results now presented by almost all companies listed on the Milan Stock Exchange have, for the most part, exceeded the already rather optimistic expectations that analysts held a month ago. The threat posed by the feared effects of the war in the Middle East on growth and inflation now appears to be behind us, despite the situation in the Gulf still being far from resolved, and the significant increase in corporate profits already recorded in the first six months of thethe year makes market experts even more confident in the ability to hit the target – widely cited – of double-digit overall growth for the whole of 2026, a target on which few were likely willing to bet at the end of February, following the attack on Iran.

The analysis carried out by Intermonte for Il Sole 24 Ore reveals that as many as 40 of the 62 Italian listed companies tracked by the Milan-based investment firm – and which have so far published their results for the second quarter of 2026 – have exceeded analysts’ expectations, compared with 16 that reported results in line with expectations and just 6 that fell short. Ultimately, this represents a percentage of positive surprises that ‘exceeds the average of 45–50 per cent seen in previous quarters’, notes Alberto Villa, head of equity research at Intermonte; it is therefore a result that is nonetheless noteworthy and perhaps not entirely expected.

What was surprising was not specifically the banks’ results, nor those in the financial sector in general, where surprises have certainly been nothing new for many quarters now. Here, the positive trend has indeed been confirmed, but this time the good news has also come from elsewhere. Intermonte points in particular to certain industrial sectors and also the consumer sector, which includes luxury, beverages and health – which had previously been characterised by difficult trends – as well as automotive components and defence. ‘In this case, the surprise is partly due to the fact that expectations had been revised downwards in previous months, whilst the figures ultimately turned out to be positive,’ admits Villa, who notes that in this respect Italia is in line with the rest of Europe, which has, after all, experienced similar trends.

The driving force behind the FTSE MIB’s repeated record highs, including those seen in the week just ended, lies primarily in general factors, including the inevitable expectation that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and that oil prices will consequently fall. There is no doubt, however, that news from the corporate sector also played a part in encouraging investor buying. Taken as a whole, companies listed on Milan’s main index, the FTSE MIB, have managed to generate profits totalling €37.3 billion since the start of the year, according to data compiled by the Research Centre of *Il Sole 24 Ore* following the release of the latest quarterly results.

The clear standout performers behind a rise of over 19 per cent overall compared with the same period last year were, of course, the banks, which accounted for over 40 per cent of the half-yearly profits generated on the main market. Added to this is the contribution made by insurance companies (accounting for a further 9 per cent) and asset management firms (almost 8 per cent), painting a picture of a stock market where more than half of the profitability is linked to the financial sector in the broadest sense. The top five ‘profit-generating’ companies – in order: UniCredit, Intesa, Enel, Eni and Generali – together account for almost 60 per cent of the total value.