Piedmont, 12 billion for growth: the challenge remains demography

Extra resources amounting to at least 12 billion and a good positioning on the front of sustainable development indicators, first among the regions of Northern Italy. These are the two pillars on which Piedmont can build a development strategy for the next few years, at least according to the Ires Piemonte research team, coordinated by Stefano Aimone, which presented its annual report, looking beyond the contingent challenges, however, and trying to focus on some structural nodes. Demography, understood as the birth deficit and the ageing of the population, certainly represents the most demanding challenge for a region that will lose almost half a million under-65s in twenty years, i.e. by 2044, while gaining at least 250,000 over-65s.

The 'extraordinary' resources come from European planning to 2027, the NRP and the Social Fund for Cohesion. 'The green transition represents an extraordinary opportunity for innovation and reconversion of the production system,' points out Ires director Angelo Robotto, 'so much so that 40% of the available investment resources will converge on this theme. But there is a dual set of problems: on the one hand proposing an inclusive model of sustainable transition, and on the other making up for the weakness of the public administration after the progressive reduction of personnel and the reform of the provinces that has left administrative gaps, with a steering committee that can coordinate projects and actions in the area.

The demographic issue has taken on economic significance, as the Bankitalia report showed - in 2042 the labour force in Piedmont would be about 285,500 less than in 2022, -14.9% .

For the Ires researchers, the demographic issue is urgent, goes beyond the sociological level and becomes a braking factor for development. A negative contribution to Piedmont's growth in the 20-year period 2000-2019 would derive from the decrease in the working-age population - a trend that is sharper than in the other regions of Northern Italy -, which is not compensated by the increase in productivity.

During the last assembly of Confindustria Novara, Vercelli, Valsesia, president Gianni Filippa lined up a series of data: the population of Piedmont, he recalled, was 4.5 million at the end of the 1980s, by the end of 2023 it had reached 4.25 million.